2023 End Of Year Market Report

A market overview of North side sales in San Francisco from 7/1/23-12/31/23

2023 End of Year Market Report

DEDICATED TO YOUR SUCCESS

Never has there been a better time to purchase an ultra-luxury home in San Francisco. The year 2023 favored the bold who decided to buy. I have been selling the best homes in San Francisco for 20 years, and we have come full circle. For the first 15 years of my career, any purchase over $8 million was always cash. Then came the era of low-interest rates, where it became painfully obvious that money was ‘free,’ and getting a loan was the way to purchase uber-luxury homes. Now that the rates have gone up, and the market winds have shifted, the ‘smart’ money has returned. ‘Cash is king’ rings true once more. Furthermore, the relentless media, feeding the doom loop narrative of San Francisco in 2023, dampened the enthusiasm for investing in the city. I, for one, am here to make a stand: San Francisco will continue to amaze us! To go through adversity allows for growth, and with growth comes new realities. I owe everything to this city, and in my world, every single person I know is committed to the betterment of our home. I am born and raised on the streets of San Francisco, and I see the sprouts of the next iteration of lifestyle and business. I predict an exciting 2024 real estate market. I am very busy with calls, appointments, and showings. There is a palpable energy I am feeling from buyers and sellers. It is time to get things done, and I have complete confidence in this one- of-a-kind location. The first rule in real estate will continue to hold true: location, location, location. The lifestyle here is amazing, and that will continue to be true. Get outside and see for yourself!

MAX ARMOUR

Luxury Real Estate Agent 415.290.6058 max.armour@compass.com DRE 01446122 maxarmour.com

2023 MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS • The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, surprisingly strong demand (considering first two issues), and an extremely low supply of new listings - which maintained upward pressure on prices, even as housing affordability dropped. • Purchase activity was repressed due to interest rates and the inadequate supply of homes for sale, while for prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling and economic conditions rebounding - which should further boost buyer demand in 2024 - the big question is how much do rates have to fall for homeowners to start selling their homes in normal numbers again? • In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. • CPI inflation declined in 2023 from 6.3% in January to 3.1% in November. • After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq up 45% in 2023. • The number of new listings coming on market in 2023 was the lowest in decades, a dominant factor behind sales dropping to their lowest annual total since the great recession.

2024 MARKET PREDICTIONS

• “Inflation around the globe is slowing way faster than expected. If economists are right...next year [will see] inflation back to normal levels for the first time in three years.” Wall Street Journal, December 2023, • “Consumer sentiment...soared 14% in December [due to] substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation...All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment...[2024] inflation expectations plunged from 4.5% last month to 3.1% this month.” University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index, December 2023 • “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained below 7%...after 17 consecutive weeks above. Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market...Heading into the new year, the economy remains on firm ground with solid growth, a tight labor market, decelerating inflation, and a nascent rebound in the housing market.” Freddie Mac, December 2023

10 HIGHEST HOME SALES IN 2023

MOST EXPENSIVE ACTIVE LISTINGS

Neighborhood Presidio Heights Pacific Heights

Highest Sale*

Neighborhood Pacific Heights Pacific Heights Presidio Heights

Price

$34,500,000 $23,500,000 $20,000,000 $18,615,000 $18,500,000 $17,500,000 $16,375,000 $16,300,000 $14,300,000 $13,500,000

$32,000,000 $32,000,000 $29,000,000 $25,000,000

Sea Cliff Sea Cliff

Sea Cliff

Presidio Heights

Pacific Heights $19,950,000 Pacific Heights (condo) $19,900,000 Sea Cliff - (pending) $16,500,000 Pacific Heights $15,900,000 Yerba Buena (condo) $15,500,000 Pacific Heights $14,500,000

Pacific Heights (condo)

Cow Hollow

Presidio Heights Presidio Heights

Cow Hollow

HIGHEST SALES IN OTHER SELECTED NEIGHBORHOODS

Neighborhood

Highest Sale*

Neighborhood Clarendon Heights

Price

Noe Valley Jordan Park Lake Street Cole Valley

$7,000,000 $6,775,000 $6,200,000 $6,144,000 $6,100,000

$9,938,000 $8,000,000 $7,750,000 $7,675,000 $7,500,000

Russian Hill

Yerba Buena (condo)

Portrero Hill Buena Vista

South Beach (condo)

*Source: Compass.com., InfoSparks. San Francisco County includes neighborhoods: Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, and North Beach. Property Type: SFH, Condo $2M+ from 7/1/2023 - 12/31/2023. Results deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

SALES FROM JULY • 2023 TO DECEMBER • 2023

SINGLE FAMILY HOME PACIFIC HEIGHTS • PRESIDIO HEIGHTS • SEA CLIFF

CONDO, TIC, CO-OP $2M+ PACIFIC HEIGHTS • PRESIDIO HEIGHTS • SEA CLIFF

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA

DOM Neighborhood 52 Pacific Heights

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA ½BA DOM Neighborhood

½BA

2634 Broderick St

$4,800,000 $1,414 $3,050,000 $1,345

4 3 2

2500 Steiner St, Unit 1

$3,050,000 $1,255 $2,295,000 $1,031 $2,505,000 $1,035

2 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 4 4

1 1

102 Pacific Heights 14 Pacific Heights

91 25th Ave 3555 Clay St 2660 Scott St

N/A N/A N/A

Sea Cliff

2630 Laguna St 2795 Laguna St

$5,700,000 $1,298 5

Presidio Heights

N/A 19 Pacific Heights

$13,000,000 $1,415 $4,528,000 $1,820

6 1

174 Pacific Heights

2821 Buchanan St, Unit 34 $2,700,000 $1,137

N/A

Pacific Heights

2572 Washington St

3 2

1 1

Pacific Heights

1911 B Vallejo St 3931 Clay St 2867 Green St

$3,800,000 $1,224

112 Pacific Heights 40 Presidio Heights

2750 Vallejo St 2472 Clay St 3007 Jackson St 2785 Vallejo St 2410 Steiner St 2341 Vallejo St 230 Cherry St 18 Presidio Ter 5 Presidio Ter 2430 Broadway 2232 Jackson St 23 Presidio Ter

$23,500,000 $3,017 6

N/A Pacific Heights

$3,395,000 $1,279 5

N/A

$2,375,000 $1,033

3 2

N/A 21

Pacific Heights

$2,750,000 $1,157 $2,490,000 $1,289

3 2 3 2

N/A 28 Pacific Heights N/A N/A Pacific Heights

$6,800,000 $1,225 6

3 2

86 Pacific Heights N/A Pacific Heights N/A Pacific Heights

2932 Washington St

$7,250,000 $1,808 $5,700,000 $1,174

4 3 4 4

1 1

2121 Webster St, Unit PH17 $17,500,000 $3,296 5 5 1

488 Pacific Heights 99 Pacific Heights

1810 Jackson St, Unit 8

$2,600,000 $795 $3,700,000 $1,221 $2,300,000 $1,016

4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 4 3 4 3

$6,000,000 $1,644 4 3 2

24 31 18 10

Pacific Heights Presidio Heights Presidio Heights Presidio Heights Pacific Heights Pacific Heights Presidio Heights Presidio Heights

2259 Clay St 1710 Vallejo St

N/A

Pacific Heights

$4,500,000 $1,080 5

N/A 26 Pacific Heights

$14,300,000 $1,490 $8,750,000 $1,736

5 1

2855 Jackson St, Unit 302 $2,125,000 $1,093

N/A 9

Pacific Heights

4 4

2119 Scott St

$2,075,000 $1,169 $2,500,000 $743

N/A 14 Pacific Heights

$12,500,000 N/A 5

4 2

1810 Jackson St, Unit 5

1 1

20 47

Pacific Heights Presidio Heights

$4,200,000 N/A $16,300,000 $1,715 $11,250,000 $1,781

3 2

37 27

3456 Sacramento St, #5 $4,400,000 $1,705

7 5

2121 Webster St, Unit 309 $4,800,000 $2,043 3 3

N/A N/A Pacific Heights

3530 Washington St

4 2 4 2

2090 Pacific Ave, Unit 701 $2,025,000 $1,191

2 2

N/A 5

Pacific Heights

710 El Camino Del Mar $9,850,000 $1,437 6

35 44

Sea Cliff

2655 Clay St 115 Spruce St 238 28th Ave

$4,000,000 $1,526 $5,550,000 $1,436 $2,625,000 $1,133 $5,100,000 $1,244

4 3 4 3 3 2 4 4

N/A

Pacific Heights

1 1 1 1 1

70 Presidio Heights

Sea Cliff

2612 California St

174 Pacific Heights

2121 Lyon St

$4,250,000 $1,060 5 $18,615,000 $2,938 5

3 7

32 39

Pacific Heights

130 Sea Cliff Ave

Sea Cliff

SINGLE FAMILY HOME TELEGRAPH • RUSSIAN • NOB HILL • NORTH BEACH

CONDO, TIC, CO-OP $2M+ TELEGRAPH • RUSSIAN • NOB HILL • NORTH BEACH

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA

½BA DOM Neighborhood

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA ½BA

DOM Neighborhood

81 Glover St

$2,154,000 $1,286 $9,900,000 $1,502 $850,000 $1,071

N/A 14

Russian Hill Russian Hill

1310 Greenwich St, Unit 401 $3,025,000 $1,582 44 Macondray Ln, Unit 6E $2,400,000 $1,171 1150 Sacramento St, 303 $2,450,000 $1,312 1200 California St, Unit 8C $2,450,000 $1,014 999 Green St, Unit 2905 $3,800,000 N/A 1200 California St, Unit 17D $2,000,000 $1,057

2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2

N/A 93

Russian Hill

2445 Larkin St 1448 Kearny St

Studio Studio

N/A N/A 214

20 Russian Hill

N/A

Telegraph Hill

N/A 64 N/A 53 N/A 125 N/A 76 N/A 95 N/A 144 N/A 9 N/A 94

Nob Hill Nob Hill

875 Francisco St $8,000,000 $1,264 4

3 3

186

Russian Hill Russian Hill

2406 Larkin St 2841 Larkin St 2323 Hyde St 2038 Powell St 2323 Hyde St 2345 Hyde St

$3,225,000 $1,275 $3,050,000 $1,160

3 4

3 2

1 1

Russian Hill

30 Russian Hill

Nob Hill

$6,375,000 $750 6

6 2/A

37 10 35

Russian Hill North Beach Russian Hill Russian Hill

2164 Hyde St, Unit 202

$2,150,000 $1,103

Russian Hill Russian Hill Russian Hill Russian Hill

$1,905,000 $822

2 6 3

1150 Lombard St, Unit 3 $2,510,000 $721

$6,375,000 $804 6

1256 Lombard St

$2,250,000 $1,117 $2,360,000 $1,360 $2,400,000 $764 $4,750,000 $1,979 $2,300,000 $972

4 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 3

$3,950,000 $1,431

N/A 120

874 Union St

840 Powell St, Unit 301 10 Miller Pl, Unit 2300 1020 Union St, Unit 8

1 1

125

Nob Hill

24 Nob Hill

N/A 212

Russian Hill Russian Hill Russian Hill

1750 Taylor St, Unit 603 $3,100,000 $1,732

N/A

2222 Hyde St, Unit 1

$2,350,000 $848 $2,995,000 $1,266 $2,575,000 $888

N/A 52

1000 N Point St, Unit 1801 165 Francisco St, Unit 11

N/A

33 Russian Hill

3 2 2

N/A

Telegraph Hill

1362 Vallejo St, Unit A $2,400,000 $1,179

3 2 4 3

1 1

Russian Hill

840 Powell St, Unit 501

$2,200,000 $714

244 Nob Hill

*Source: Compass.com., InfoSparks. San Francisco County includes neighborhoods: Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Tele - graph Hill, and North Beach. Property Type: SFH, Condo $2M+ from 7/1/2023 - 12/31/2023. Results deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

SALES FROM JULY • 2023 TO DECEMBER • 2023

SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARINA • COW HOLLOW

CONDO, TIC, CO-OP $2M+ MARINA • COW HOLLOW

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA ½BA DOM Neighborhood

Address

Price

PPSF BD BA ½BA DOM Neighborhood

1501 Beach St, Unit 402 $2,500,000 $1,255

3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 3 2 2

N/A N/A

Marina District Marina District Marina District

3160 Baker St

$2,800,000 $1,569

4 3

1 1 1

52 191

Marina District Marina District Marina District Marina District Marina District

3636 Webster St 1332 Francisco St

$2,350,000 $1,031 $2,235,000 $1,035

112 Mallorca Way $5,680,000 $1,181 611 Marina Blvd $5,250,000 $1,257

N/A N/A

4 3 3 2

1515 Union St, Unit 3B $2,000,000 $1,137 1515 Union St, Unit 3A $2,367,447 $1,224

N/A

Cow Hollow Cow Hollow Cow Hollow

3325 Pierce St 3825 Webster St 2900 Scott St 2824 Scott St 2836 Filbert St 2600 Green St 3150 Baker St 3140 Lyon St 2644 Filbert St

$2,118,000 $1,465 $2,250,000 $1,250 $7,800,000 $1,169

N/A 13

N/A 63

2 7

81 14

2724 Baker St

$2,100,000 $1,279 $3,250,000 $1,157 $2,200,000 $1,289

Cow Hollow

1258 Francisco St 3627 Webster St

N/A

0 7 7

Marina District Marina District

$16,375,000 $2,210 6

7 3

334 Cow Hollow

$3,600,000 $1,538

4 3

N/A

47 14

Cow Hollow Cow Hollow

3032 Baker St

$2,275,000 $3,296 2 2

N/A

Cow Hollow Cow Hollow

$8,810,000 $1,283 5 5 $3,825,000 $1,464 4 4

2465 Union St, Unit 2

$2,100,000 $795

3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2

N/A 14

N/A 45 N/A 8

Marina District

2701 Van Ness Ave, #710 $2,200,000 $1,221

N/A

20 Cow Hollow

$3,178,500 $947

4 4

Cow Hollow

2329 N Point St

$2,250,000 $1,016 $2,125,000 $1,093

N/A 64

Marina District

$7,810,500 $1,434 5

4 3

40 Cow Hollow

1990 Green St, Unit 601

N/A

20 Cow Hollow

39 Avila St

$3,500,000 $1,408

4 3

N/A 67

Marina District Marina District Marina District

805 Marina Blvd $4,510,000 $1,287

4 3 2

2280 Bay St 2880 Green St 2770 Green St 2611 Filbert St

$4,275,000 $1,349 5

$8,300,000 $1,339 5 6 1

74 Cow Hollow

$5,250,000 $1,201 $5,600,000 $1,577 $2,150,000 $955

4 2 2

75 69 27

Cow Hollow Cow Hollow

4 3 3 2

36 Prado St

N/A

Marina District

2557-2571 Filbert St $8,000,000 $1,192 9 10 N/A 67

Cow Hollow

180 Avila St

$3,250,000 $1,182 $2,270,000 $1,780

Marina District Marina District

2167 N Point St

2 3

N/A 5

*Source: Compass.com., InfoSparks. San Francisco County includes neighborhoods: Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Tele - graph Hill, and North Beach. Property Type: SFH, Condo $2M+ from 7/1/2023 - 12/31/2023. Results deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

FEATURED LISTING

2898 BROADWAY ST.

PACIFIC HEIGHTS

10 Bed | 6 bath | 1 1/2 bath $32,000,000

FEATURED LISTING

608 SEMINARY DR.

MILL VALLEY - MARIN

5 Bed | 4 bath | 2 1/2 bath $9,995,000

FEATURED LISTING

2590 UNION ST.

COW HOLLOW

5 Bed | 3 bath | 1 1/2 bath Sold: $7,250,000

RECENT SALES

3075 PACIFIC AVE.

3530 WASHINGTON ST.

COUNTRY CLUB DR.

San Francisco 3 Bed | 3 Bath | 2 1/2 Bath Sold: $7,900,000 Buyer Representation

San Francisco 4 Bed | 4 Bath | 2 1/2 Bath Sold: $11,250,000 Buyer Representation

Mill Valley-Marin 5 Bed | 4 Bath Sold: $4,900,000

39 AVILA ST.

1170 SACRAMENTO ST. 12D

805 MARINA BLVD.

San Francisco 3 Bed | 3 Bath Sold: $3,500,000

San Francisco 3 Bed | 4.5 Bath | 1 1/2 Bath Sold: $4,500,000

San Francisco 4 Bed | 3 Bath | 2 1/2 bath Sold: $4,510,000

31 MOHAWK AVE.

3122 CLAY ST.

15 DEL HARO WAY

Corta Madera-Marin 3 Bed | 3 Bath Sold: $2,100,000 Buyer Representation

San Francisco 4 Bed | 3 Bath Sold: $1,829,307

San Rafael-Marin 4 Bed | 2 Bath Sold: $1,910,000 Buyer Representation

SAN FRANCISCO REGIONAL MARKET 2023 HOME SALES BY PRICE SEGMENT*

$4,000,000-$4,999,999

$5,000,000+ | .4% of sales were $10M+

$3,000,000-$3,999,999

4% 2% 2%

12% $2,000,000-$2,999,999

28%

82% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos, co-ops and TICs.There were over 4050 home sales in 2023. Under $1,000,000

There were over 4050 home sales in 2023.

19%

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/22/23. Not all sales are reported to MLS, especially many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%. Sales by Property Type*

$1,500,000-$1,999,999

Sales by Property Type*

32%

50% of sales of $1m - $1,499,999 were condos, co-ops and TICs. $1,000,000-$1,499,999

House Condo TIC Co-op

47% 45% 6% 1%

SAN FRANCISCO ANNUAL NEW-LISTING VOLUME

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS COMING ON MARKET BY YEAR, SINCE 2005*

9985

The number of new listings in 2023 was the lowest in decades.

9807

10000

9274

9138 8988

8882

8792

8242

8178

7679

8000

7281

7255

7032

6922

6798 6716

6747 6626

6233

6000

4000

Pandemic Market

Interest Rates Soar

2000

Market Recovery and High-tech Boom

*Source: Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Condos include co-op, townhouse, TIC sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. Last period estimated based on data available early in following month. All numbers approximate.

SAN FRANCISCO ANNUAL SALES - $5,000,000+ NUMBER OF LUXURY HOME SALES BY YEAR, SINCE 2005*

Sales: $5 Million+

Sales: $10 Million+

199

200

Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreci- ation trends - all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).

150

120

Though home sales of $5 million+ fell in 2023 (from the high sales volumes during the pandemic boom), $10 million+ sales were relatively unchanged from 2022 (though well down from the 2021 peak).

100

Pandemic Market

Interest Rates Soar

Market Recovery and High-tech Boom

116

SAN FRANCISCO LUXURY HOUSE MARKET IN 2023*

HOUSE SALES OF $4,000,000+, BY DISTRICT, 12 MONTHS SALES

$4M-$4,999,999

$5M-$7,999,999

$8,000,000+

Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/Marina (D7)

Russian, Nob, & Telegraph Hills (D8)

2 3 1

Telegr

SAN FRANCISCO LUXURY CONDO, CO-OP, TIC & TOWNHOUSE MARKET IN 2023*

$2.5M-$2,999,999

$3M-$3,999,999

$4M-$4,999,999+

$5M+

Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/Marina (D7)

Russian, Nob, & Telegraph Hills (D8)

*12 months sales and pending sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/18/23. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12

Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator