2023 MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS • The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, surprisingly strong demand (considering first two issues), and an extremely low supply of new listings - which maintained upward pressure on prices, even as housing affordability dropped. • Purchase activity was repressed due to interest rates and the inadequate supply of homes for sale, while for prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling and economic conditions rebounding - which should further boost buyer demand in 2024 - the big question is how much do rates have to fall for homeowners to start selling their homes in normal numbers again? • In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. • CPI inflation declined in 2023 from 6.3% in January to 3.1% in November. • After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq up 45% in 2023. • The number of new listings coming on market in 2023 was the lowest in decades, a dominant factor behind sales dropping to their lowest annual total since the great recession.
2024 MARKET PREDICTIONS
• “Inflation around the globe is slowing way faster than expected. If economists are right...next year [will see] inflation back to normal levels for the first time in three years.” Wall Street Journal, December 2023, • “Consumer sentiment...soared 14% in December [due to] substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation...All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment...[2024] inflation expectations plunged from 4.5% last month to 3.1% this month.” University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index, December 2023 • “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained below 7%...after 17 consecutive weeks above. Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market...Heading into the new year, the economy remains on firm ground with solid growth, a tight labor market, decelerating inflation, and a nascent rebound in the housing market.” Freddie Mac, December 2023
10 HIGHEST HOME SALES IN 2023
MOST EXPENSIVE ACTIVE LISTINGS
Neighborhood Presidio Heights Pacific Heights
Highest Sale*
Neighborhood Pacific Heights Pacific Heights Presidio Heights
Price
$34,500,000 $23,500,000 $20,000,000 $18,615,000 $18,500,000 $17,500,000 $16,375,000 $16,300,000 $14,300,000 $13,500,000
$32,000,000 $32,000,000 $29,000,000 $25,000,000
Sea Cliff Sea Cliff
Sea Cliff
Presidio Heights
Pacific Heights $19,950,000 Pacific Heights (condo) $19,900,000 Sea Cliff - (pending) $16,500,000 Pacific Heights $15,900,000 Yerba Buena (condo) $15,500,000 Pacific Heights $14,500,000
Pacific Heights (condo)
Cow Hollow
Presidio Heights Presidio Heights
Cow Hollow
HIGHEST SALES IN OTHER SELECTED NEIGHBORHOODS
Neighborhood
Highest Sale*
Neighborhood Clarendon Heights
Price
Noe Valley Jordan Park Lake Street Cole Valley
$7,000,000 $6,775,000 $6,200,000 $6,144,000 $6,100,000
$9,938,000 $8,000,000 $7,750,000 $7,675,000 $7,500,000
Russian Hill
Yerba Buena (condo)
Portrero Hill Buena Vista
South Beach (condo)
*Source: Compass.com., InfoSparks. San Francisco County includes neighborhoods: Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, and North Beach. Property Type: SFH, Condo $2M+ from 7/1/2023 - 12/31/2023. Results deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator