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Foreword
Rethinking the macro landscape
Reframing globalisation
Redefining sustainability
Investment implications
Scenario
Rationale
Asset class/Strategy
Asia ex Japan equities
DM recessions vs growth in most EM economies
Recession to slow profits and margins in the US. Valuations of Asia ex Japan equities are more attractive than the US’.
Inflation continues to moderate in most economies
A broad and sustained decline in inflation gives central banks room to cut rates in 2024. At the same time, slower economic growth favours a quality bias.
US and Asian Investment Grade bonds
Japan equities
Improving corporate fundamentals in Japan
More entrenched inflation will allow Japanese companies to raise prices and improve margins. Increasing corporate governance lifts shareholder value.
Multi asset portfolios Low volatility equities Multi factor strategies 10-year US Treasuries Singapore government and SGD corporate bonds
Uncertain market and economic climate
Market volatility to stay as policymakers prioritise credibility over market pressures.
Contributors --------------- Nupur Gupta, Chaitanya Shrivastava, Goh Rong Ren, Leong Wai Mei, Cheong Wei Ming, Eric Fang, Jamie Tay, Weng Jingjing, Ben Dunn, Michael Sun, Ivailo Dikov, Oliver Lee.
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