Semantron 24 Summer 2024

Semantron 24

Summer 2024

Semantron was founded in 1992 by Dr. Jan Piggott (Head of English, and then Archivist at the College) together with one of his students, Richard Scholar (now Senior Tutor at Oriel College, Oxford and Professor of French and Comparative Literature).

The artwork on the cover and at the beginning of each section of the magazine is by Ty Watson.

Editor’s introduction

Neil Croally

While the majority of essays in this volume were produced as part of our own extended essay programme (which is clearly in a healthy state), a number were written for prizes. All the essays in the section Freedom , with the exception of Adam Hydari’s, were written under examination conditions in the well-established, inter-school Erasmus competition for older students; Daniel Kamaluddin was awarded the third- place prize. Brian Chau’s essay won first prize in the second year of the Popper Prize , another inter-school competition (for Year 10 students). The judge in this instance was Professor Philip Goff of Durham University, known to those in the philosophical community as the author of Galileo’s Error and, more recently, Why? The Purpose of the Universe . The essays by Daniel O’Connell (year 10), Taylor Lai (Year 9) and Atticus Dewe (Year 10) were awarded first, second and third prizes respectively in our own Gareth Evans Essay Competition.

Gareth Evans was also commemorated on April 30 th of this year, when friends, academic colleagues, students and teachers gathered to hear Professor Ian Phillips (OA) celebrate his life and work in the newly-named Evans Room (formerly the Old Library). Evans, in his short life, was able to combine a sharp curiosity with a technical mastery of philosophical logic. More broadly, he deployed ‘discursive methods of analysis and argument, critical

discontent, and an imaginative compa rison of possibilities’ – all characteristic of philosophy at its best. 1 I hope that readers will agree that the essays in this volume display the same virtues. Certainly, there is something compelling about their range and intensity.

References

Goff, P. (2019) Galileo’s Error . Foundations for a New Science of Consciousness . London (2023) Why? The Purpose of the Universe . Oxford Williams, B. (1985) Ethics and the Limits of Philosophy . London

1 Williams 1985: 4.

Contents

Part One

EMERGENCY

Viable solutions to anthropogenic climate change ZAC BROUGHTON

The historic use of leaded petrol and how it affected humanity MARCO WONG

Should the government prioritize energy security over the energy transition? OLIVER RICHES

To what extent is hydrogen the fuel of the future? ADIB RAHMAN

The economics of the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy in transport BEN BIRCH

Rolls- Royce’s small modular reactors and the UK’s clean energy sector? ARCHIE BOWERS

Part Two

TIME FUTURE

32 Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the future of Medicine: ethical, technical and patient care considerations ZAKI KABIR

Towards personalized systemic anti-cancer therapies (SACTs) FREDERICK CHALLACOMBE

The edge of modern physics: beyond the Standard Model NIVETHAN SATHANANTHAN

Are vertical farms the future? An analysis from an engineering perspective KENT HUANG

Ageing MARK SUN

Does America have to ever pay back its debt? LUKE GURNHILL

73 How can analytical chemistry techniques be used to find habitable planets or extra-terrestrial life? PABLO PINEL-MORELL

The first mouse synthetic embryo LORENZO ROSELLI

Methods of generating iPSCs CHRIS RYDER

Part Three

FREEDOM

What type of state – if any – is a precondition for true liberty? ALEX GERASIMCHUK

Can we have freedom to make any choice we wish? ALEXANDER POLI

101

Can we talk of having a destiny? NICHOLAS ADAMIDES

103

How does collecting wearable usage data impact an elite athlete's legal rights? ADAM HYDARI

109

Obedience and freedom DANIEL KAMALUDDIN

114

Do we have any responsibility for problems not of our making? JOSS WILDGOOSE BULLOCH

Part Four

STUFF

118

Quantum mechanics: the evolution of its applications RAOUL KEMP

123

Plastic gloves to grape soda: analysis of an organic conversion EVI BUKATA

128

An introduction to partial derivatives and the heat equation DANIEL BILALOV

140

From anaesthetic to antidepressant: Ketamine and depression GABRIEL POON

144

The role of magnetic fields in star formation JAMES OWEN

Part Five

TIME PRESENT

151

Technology and trade OLIVER HIME

157

The Windsor Framework and the future of the Northern Ireland Assembly CHARLIE BOYLE

163

‘Both perhaps present’: contradictions in time, Four Quartets and Twin Peaks LUC GERRARD

168

Profitable rebellion: exploring unconventional anti-ESG investments funds NICOLAI MONZON LADAS

173

Donne, Marvell and Time FRANCIS McCABE

178

‘What, if anything, is wrong with drone warfare?’ DANIEL O’ CONNELL

181

Universal Basic Income – pipe dream or panacea? WILLIAM RANSLEY

Part Six

MIND

186

The impact of in-store music on wine sales CHARLIE DRAKE-BROCKMAN

190

Consciousness: a philosophical or scientific problem? BRIAN CHAU

193

In what sense are you the same person today that you were when you were ten? TY WATSON

199 The significance of self-awareness for personal growth among gifted and talented children SEBASTIAN MAK

Does gender affect a person’s willingness to be charitable? OLIVER O’CONNOR

203

Part Seven

TRUTH AND TRAGEDY

207

Artificial intelligence: some legal and ethical issues HANK ZE

212

How can words be beautiful? ATTICUS DEWE

215

To what extent is science our best guide to reality? TAYLOR LAI

219 ‘I sentence you to death by drowning!’ – the absurdist destruction of the everyman in the short fiction of Franz Kafka KIT PARSONS

223

Why do Plato and Aristotle consider Homer the greatest tragedian? PETR DONSKOY

229

The adversarial and inquisitorial legal systems: truth before justice MATTHEW DA COSTA

Part Eight

TIME PAST

235

Franco’s control of Spain during the years 1939 -1975 ALEXANDER LEVITT

243

Marx’s 1853 analysis of the causes of the Taiping rebellion OLIVER GREEN

249

Oppenheimer and America’s anti -communist paranoia ELLIOT GUBBAY

255

Agricola: love him or hate him? PETR DONSKOY

260

To what extent was Idi Amin anything more than an unstable despot? SACHIN SHUKLA

The Great Divergence: Europe, China and industrialization ALEXANDRE GRUFFAT

265

270

‘On every new thing lies already the shadow of annihilation . ’ Kurt Vonnegut’s Slaughterhouse-Five and W.G. Sebald’s The Rings of Saturn . DANIEL KAMALUDDIN

276

Maglev: the history and physics behind frictionless train transportation DANNY LIANG

Part One

Viable solutions to anthropogenic climate change

Zac Broughton

The effects of anthropogenic climate change are an existential threat we are currently facing as a species. It could potentially cause massive internal displacement across the globe via rising sea levels as well as increased water and food insecurity, which threatens to increase the likelihood of armed conflict. Despite efforts made by various governments, NGOs and activist groups, the threat of anthropogenic warming evidently remains, as ‘greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at an alarming rate’ (NOAA 2023) and how even with low emissio ns, we could see 2 C of warming (Diffenbaugh 2023). It is due to these reasons that further solutions must be pursued in order to properly combat the effects of anthropogenic climate change, involving both economic solutions ,such as those suggested in the Stern Review, and social solutions such as grassroots movements bringing about top-down change. This essay will argue for these solutions, firstly by clarifying the risks of anthropogenic climate change. Secondly, it will highlight the insufficient response being taken, despite the economic solutions being available and, thirdly, it will highlight the power social movements have in bringing about the necessary action to reduce the risks of anthropogenic warming. In order to highlight the necessity of these solutions, we must first clarify the risks of anthropogenic warming. These include the melting of sea ice due to a warmer climate and the subsequent rise in sea level, thus increasing risk of loss of life and property damage. A world bank report (Dhaka 2022) highlights how Bangladesh is uniquely threatened by rising sea levels, with much of the country’s elevation being less than 10m above sea level, creating the risk that ‘13 million people could become internal climate migrants. In case of severe flooding, GDP could fall by as much as 9%’ (Dhaka 2022) . An increase in tropical storms due to rising ocean temperatures poses a further risk. This was highlighted in 2022, in which ‘Southeast Africa was hit by three tr opical cyclones and two tropical storms in just six weeks’ (Levey 2022) with Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar being wors t affected. Dr Piotr Walski (University of Cape Town) suggested that ‘Southeast Africa . . . is already a hotspot for tropical storms . . . which we expect to become more intense and destructive with climate change’ thus emphasizing risks of global warming. Anthropogenic warming also acts as a ‘threat multiplier’ (Ruttinger 2017), increasing already existing state fragilities, fuelling social unrest and potentially resulting in violent conflict. The world population will increase in LICs and MICs in particular in the coming years. This will occur alongside the development of global warming which will ‘strain countries ’ abilities to meet citizens ’ needs’ (Ruttinger 2017) , thus increasing poverty and harming economic development. Ruttinger (2017) highlights how these issues ‘spur competition over essential resourc es, increasing tensions and contributing to local conflicts’, with ‘local competition . . . triggering problems at national and international levels’, serving to demonstrate how climate change risks an increase in poverty and armed conflict. These issues thus need to be directly confronted via the simultaneous implementation of social and economic solutions in order to properly reduce these risks.

Anthropogenic climate change

Economic solutions to these risks have been highlighted in the 2007 Stern review, and this has seen some success in the form of pledges made by various national governments following the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. However, research from Stanford U niversity suggests that ‘even with low emissions, we could see 2 C of warming’ ( Diffenbaugh, 2023), highlighting the insufficiency of economic solutions in isolation and thus the need for the implementation of social solutions alongside them. Courses of action to reduce the effects of warming were proposed in the 2007 Stern Review, outlining the economics of anthropogenic climate change and highlighting how ‘the cost of stabil izing the climate change are . . . manageable; delay would be . . . much more costly.’ The review also outlined a course of action revolving around carbon pricing, an increase in investment into the development of green technologies, and the integration of the climate into international and development policies. It is these proposed actions which serve as an example of economically viable solutions to anthropogenic climate change. While the 1% of global GDP required to bring about these changes is not a negligible sum, it is far lower than the potential overall cost of climate change impacts, estimated to be the equivalent of 5% of global GDP annually if ‘business as usual’ policies are followed. The implementation of carbon pricing allows corporate bodies to see the literal cost of their actions, and development of green technologies can aid in the transition to a lower carbon economy. The emergence of this review has had an effect, with climate policy being enshrined into pledges and law. The USA promise to reach Net Zero before 2050 and the 2015 Paris Agreement are some examples of this. However, as we have seen, even with low emissions, we could see 2 C of warming (Diffenbaugh 2023), highlighting how the pledges that have been made do not necessarily equate to sufficient reduction in release of greenhouse gasses and subsequently does not mean that sufficient action regarding climate change is being taken. It is the lack of evidence to support the claim that the globe is on track to meet the goal of keeping emissions below 2 C (despite the existence of economic solutions), that demonstrates how social solutions must be implemented alongside economic solutions in order to properly reduce the risks of anthropogenic warming. There are many forms which these social solutions can take, such as grassroots action including lifestyle changes to reduce individual ‘carbon footprints’ . There is certainly an argument to be presented that a solution to anthropogenic warming lies within changes to individual lifestyle choices. Roy and Pal (2009) highlight how ‘GHG reduction potential is huge since an individual can contribute in a number of ways such as reduction in meat consumption, purchase of efficient appliances ’ as well as how ‘achieving a sustainable level of energy use would mean reducing the household energy budget’ . As of 2016, energy production was responsible for 73.2% of global GHG production, and agriculture a further 18.4% (Jack 2022). By reducing demand for these factors by taking action such as reducing meat consumption, GHG emissions fall and thus serve as a means of climate mitigation. However, the effectiveness in lifestyle changes in bringing about the net zero emissions required are limited. Clark (2022) points out how ‘great drivers of consumption are . . . governments, who structure and influence the systems that meet our needs’ . While significant, collective lifestyle change cannot bring about Net Zero emissions in isolation due to the influence our governments have over GHG emissions. Our governments have the potential to either increase or decrease GHG emissions of their countries significantly, as demonstrated by the approval of over 100 new oil and gas licences by Sunak’s British Conservative government as of July 2023 (Walker 2023). It could thus be argued that an even more effective solution to the mitigation of climate change is governmental action to introduce sustainable

Anthropogenic climate change

climate policy, as well as greater regulation of private companies, themselves responsible for 71% of global greenhouse gas emissions since 1988 (Oldfield). This lack of sufficient action derives not from a lack of ability, but from a lack of willingness. To evidence this, we can look to the UK government ’ s response to crises it has previously faced and compare it to its response to climate change as an example. During the financial crisis of 2007- 09 ‘£137 billion of public money in loans and capital’ was spent on stabilizing the banking sector (according to the house of commons library), a much more significant sum when compared to the £1.18 billion spent by the UK government between 2013-19 on climate related aid. It is the power of governments to act to resolve anthropogenic warming and their failure to do so which highlights the limitations of changes to individual lifestyle choices as a social solution. However, it also highlights the necessity of grassroots movements as a social solution in bringing about this necessary top-down change. Grassroots activist movements are an example of a necessary social solution to anthropogenic warming, as they have the potential to influence the implementation of policy, thus bringing about necessary top-down change. Naomi Klein (2014) states: ‘If enough of us . . . decide that climate change is a crisis worthy of Marshall Plan levels of response, then . . . the political class will have to respond . . . by making resourc es available.’ The effects of grassroots movements can already be seen in the effects of the youth climate action movement as ‘youth collective action has succeeded in problematizing global climate inaction . . . and in framing climate change from a justice perspective’ (Han 2020). These grassroots movements have the potential to greatly influence policymaking decisions, encouraging governments to pursue the economic solution previously highlighted. Thus, activism as a social solution is vital in bringing about the necessary previously discussed economic solutions to global warming. To further enforce this argument, we can look to the historical success of previous grassroots activist movemen ts such as the women’s suffrage movement, an activist movement which caused ‘shifts in political circumstance’ which ‘altered the political calculus on which decision makers -based action’ (McCammon et al. 2004). As highlighted by Han (2020), climate activist movements such as the youth movement are already triggered these shifts in political circumstance. These movements demonstrate a further socially viable solution to anthropogenic warming, as it allows wider populations to become involved in the resolution of it. Owing to insufficient climate action from governments, it can be concluded that these grassroots activist movements are a vital, socially viable component in bringing about the economically viable solutions to anthropogenic climate change. In conclusion, the polices outlined by the Stern Review, alongside collective grassroots activism, serve as some of the most viable economic and social solutions to climate change. The solutions suggested by the Stern Review, while viable, are evidently not entirely favoured by current political classes, as highlighted by their lack of sufficient action. Thus, it is the implementation of the social solution of grassroots activism in order to display popular demands for change that can aid in economic solutions being implemented, thus demonstrating the necessity of the simultaneous implementation of both economic and social solutions in order to properly mitigate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

References

Clark, G https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-sustainable-living-can-help-counter- climate-crisis ‘ How Sustainable Living can Help Counter the Climate Crisis’ Consulted 02/08/2023

Anthropogenic climate change

Dhaka, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/31/urgent-climate-action- crucial-for-bangladesh-to-sustain-strong- growth#:~:text=Climate%20change%20will%20hit%20poor,as%20much%20as%209%20p ercent ‘ Urgent Climate Action Crucial for Bangladesh to Sustain Strong Growth’ Consulted: 23/07/2023 Diffenbaugh, N. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/01/ai-predicts-global-warming-will- exceed-1-5-degrees-2030s ‘ Earth likely to cross critical climate thresholds even if emissions decline ’ Consulted: 23/07/2023 Han, H. Wuk Ahn, S. (2020) ‘ Youth Mobilisation to Stop Climate Change: Narratives and Impact.’ https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/4127 House of Commons Library. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9352/ . ‘UK aid and Climate Change.’ Consulted: 02/08/2023 House of Commons Library. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05748/ ‘Bank Rescues of 2007 - 09: Outcomes and Cost.’ Consulted:02/08/2023 Jack, A. https://www.ft.com/content/6204a9d2-fc45-4a6d-ace5-543031ad7064 ‘ Climate Change Threat Sparks youth action .’ Consulted: 21/08/2023 Klein, N. (2014) This Changes Everything. London Levey, S https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/235619/climate-change-increased-extreme-rainfall- southeast/#:~:text=Dr%20Piotr%20Wolski%2C%20Climate%20System,and%20destructive %20with%20climate%20change.%22 ‘Climate Change increased Rainfall in Southeast African Storms.’ Consulted: 23/07/2023 McCammon, J. Campell, K. Mowery, C. (2001) ‘How Movements Win: Gendered Opportunity Structures and U.S Womens Suffrage Movements, 1866 to 1919. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2657393.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A35ebfb6ca8353a762f 274f60ea193af2&ab_segments=&origin=&initiator=&acceptTC=1 49-70. NOAA ‘Greenhouse Gasses Continue to Rise Rapidly in 2022’ https://www.noaa.gov/news- release/greenhouse-gases-continued-to-increase-rapidly-in-2022#:~:text= Consulted: 23/07/2023 Oldfield, E. https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/global-social-challenges/2022/07/07/corporations-vs- consumers-who-is-really-to-blame-for-climate- change/#:~:text=Since%201988%2C%20just%20100%20companies,of%20global%20green house%20gas%20emissions.&text=In%20addition%20to%20this%2C%20only,during%20t he%20same%20time%20period ‘ Corporations vs Consumers: Who is Really to Blame for Climate Change?’ Consulted: 02/08/2023 Roy, J. & Pal, S. (2009) ‘Lifestyles and climate change.’ www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1877343509000396. Consulted: 23/07/2023 Ruttinger, L. (2017) ‘Climate and Fragility Risks: The Global Perspective’, https://www.jstor.org/stable/d3272a9a-b002-3436-9472- f38be1035df3?searchText=risks+of+climate+change&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch% 3FQuery%3Drisks%2Bof%2Bclimate%2Bchange&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fco ntrol&refreqid=fastly-default%3Af498864c1bb5e2558f3da9dc08b60129&seq=4 1-8 Stern, N (2007) The Stern Review. https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the- economics- of-climate-change-the-stern-review/ Walker, P. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/31/rishi-sunak-approval-100-

new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-fossil-fuel-climate-crisis ‘ New North Sea oil and gas licences will send ‘wrecking ball’ through climate commitments.’ Consulted: 23/08/23

The historic use of leaded petrol and how it affected humanity

Marco Wong

Introduction

There was a problem in the automobile industry in the late 1910s. Rapid technological development meant that engines were in increasing need of power that fuel at the time could not provide. Engineers needed to find a fuel that was not only cheap but could easily be mass produced and could withstand higher pressures without undergoing spontaneous combustion, all the while being effective at a low concentration. Charles Kettering, head of research at General Motors (GM) at the time, delegated Thomas Midgeley Jr to invent an additive to petrol that could fulfil all the requirements, and the solution he came up with was tetraethyl lead (TEL). However, whilst TEL solved all the problems of the 1920s, it only managed to kick the can down the road, creating a whole slew of problems plaguing society throughout the 20 th century.

Engine knocking

In a 4-stroke engine typically used in automobiles, the fuel is compressed in the compression stroke and ignited with a spark plug and detonated during the power stroke.

Figure 1: The complete cycle of a 4 stroke engine 1

However, when high compression engines put the fuel/air mixture inside a cylinder under too much pressure, the fuel within may detonate prematurely and spontaneously combust. When premature combustion occurs inside an engine, it is no longer ignited by the spark plug at the beginning of the power stroke, thus being ‘ out of phase ’ causing a shockwave to be sent through the engine. This

1 Bikes Republic, accessed 4 th August 2023, http://www.bikesrepublic.com/wp- content/uploads/2018/01/4strokesengine.gif.

History of leaded petrol

phenomenon is known as engine knocking, and may cause unwanted damage to the engine, decreasing its lifespan and causing nuisance due to the loud metallic pinging it produces.

Figure 2: The difference in shockwaves produced during normal combustion and premature combustion 2

Engine knocking can be prevented by using fuels better at withstanding compression, and the measure of the ability to do so without detonating is known as the fuel’s octane rating. To increase the octane rating of petrol, other substances or additives are mixed into the petrol, usually in the form of branched chain additives. Midgeley tested many potential additives to petrol, but he described most of them as ‘ no more effect than spitting in the Great Lakes ’ . 3 One additive that stood out was ethanol, which was already used as a fuel source and was able to effectively increase the octane rating and prevent premature combustion in high compression engines. The most direct route for converting energy from the sun into a material that is suitable for use in an internal combustion motor is through vegetation to alcohol. Alcohol is the only liquid from a direct vegetable source that combines relative cheapness with suitability. Alcohol will stand very high initial compressions without knocking, and at high compressions is smooth and highly satisfactory. 4 However, the use of ethanol as an additive to petrol was faced with displeasure from politicians as the 1920s coincided with prohibition of alcohol in the US, thus widespread storage and use of ethanol across the US was seen as a ‘ bargain with the devil ’ by some. Furthermore, the concentration of ethanol required to increase the octane rating is high, at around 10%, and thus even purchasing enough ethanol to produce alcohol-infused petrol would be more expensive than other 2 LibreTexts Chemistry, ‘Gasoline - A Deeper Look’, accessed 4 th August 2023, https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Organic_Chemistry/Organic_Chemistry_(Morsch_et_al.)/03%3A_Org anic_Compounds-_Alkanes_and_Their_Stereochemistry/3.08%3A_Gasoline_-_A_Deeper_Look, 3 Derek Muller, ‘The Man Who Accidentally Killed The Most People In History’, YouTube, accessed 2 nd August 2023, https://youtu.be/IV3dnLzthDA. 4 Thomas Midgley Jr., ‘Our Liquid Fuel Reserves’, unpublished paper to the Indiana Section of the Society of Automotive Engineers, 12 th October 1921.

History of leaded petrol

methods of eliminating engine knocking. 40% benzene and 1% iodine were plausible alternatives, but the former was too expensive and the latter too corrosive to be used. 5

Tetraethyl Lead

After seven years of trying, Kettering, Midgeley, and the GM research team have found the perfect compound. Working their way down Group VI of the periodic table, they found tetraethyl tin to be effective and finally landed on TEL, which was able to completely silence the engine the team was testing. 6 With the discovery of an extremely effective, apparently practical anti-knock agent, the modern high-compression, high power output internal combustion engine could now become a reality.

TEL fit the criteria for what the team was looking for:

1. It was relatively simple to produce, by reacting chloroethane with a sodium-lead alloy, 4 NaPb + 4 CH 3 CH 2 Cl → Pb(CH 3 CH 2 ) 4 + 4 NaCl + 3 Pb, [6] with both reactants able to be procured cheaply. 2. It was able to eliminate engine knocking, as TEL has 4 weak C-Pb bonds, which decompose upon heating to form 4 ethyl radicals as well as lead, which stops the radical chain reaction that otherwise would have caused spontaneous combustion, preventing premature detonation and engine knocking, with the lead itself being the reactive antiknock agent, with the ethyl radicals only serving as soluble carriers . 7

Figure 3: Skeletal formula of TEL 8

3. TEL was by far the most effective antiknock agent. One fortieth of one percent solution of TEL was equivalent in knock inhibition to 1.3% aniline in kerosene, far superior to any other compound tested under similar circumstances. 9

5 Bill Kovarik, ‘Charles F. Kettering and the 1921 discovery of tetraethyl lead’, accessed 8 th August 2023, https://environmentalhistory.org/people/charles-f-kettering-and-the-1921-discovery-of-tetraethyl-lead/#fears. 6 Ibid. 7 Dietmar Seyferth, ‘The Rise and Fall of Tetraethyl Lead. 2.’, accessed 10 th August 2023, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/epdf/10.1021/om030621b. 8 User Darkness2560, Wikipedia, accessed 4 th August 2023, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#/media/File:Tetraethyllead-Skeletal-SVG.svg. 9 Seyferth (note 7).

History of leaded petrol

Figure 4: Relative antiknock effectiveness of various compounds 10

Rollout and Controversy

Figure 5: Ethyl logo

The production and sale of TEL, now marketed as Ethyl, had always been marred by controversy. 8 deaths and many more illnesses were reported in one plant alone from 1923-25, sparking vehement comments in media, including concerns from public health experts, with one calling lead a serious menace to public health, and another calling TEL a ‘ malicious and creeping ’ poison. 11 The poisonous properties of lead were known as far back as the 2 nd century BC, with effects on the nervous system, kidneys and blood pressure well documented before the implementation of TEL as an anti-knock agent. 12

Many workers who came down with severe lead poisoning while working with TEL were documented to have become disoriented, then burst into an insane fury and collapsed into hysterical laughter, having to be wrestled into straitjackets. 13 This was because TEL was found to be much more toxic than lead alone, as it is fat-soluble and thus can be rapidly absorbed through skin and into the brain, leading to further neurological damage much quicker than lead by itself. In a public service health enquiry in May 1925, Kettering and others involved in Ethyl were faced with representatives of labour groups, oil companies, universities, government agencies and news organizations to hear arguments about TEL. 14 In August 1925, Midgeley published a paper attempting to stifle the public concern over the safety of Ethyl in plants and general use, stating that ‘ a hazard exists

10 Seyferth (note 7). 11 Bill Kovarik, ‘A century of tragedy: How the car and gas industry knew about the health risks of leaded fuel but sold it for 100 years anyway’, accessed 10 th August 2023, https://theconversation.com/a-century-of-tragedy- how-the-car-and-gas-industry-knew-about-the-health-risks-of-leaded-fuel-but-sold-it-for-100-years-anyway- 173395. 12 Herbert Needleman, ‘Lead Poisoning’, accessed 10 th August 2023, https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/get_the_lead_out/pdfs/health/Needleman_2004.pdf.

13 Kovarik (note 11). 14 Kovarik (note 5).

History of leaded petrol

in the manufacture of TEL . . . it is neither grave nor unescapable ’ and ‘ after mixing TEL with gasoline (petrol), no great precaution needs to be exercised . . . no health hazards actually exist ’ . 15

However, there have been many other people who have proved otherwise both before and after Midgeley’s publishing, that lead and TEL have a substantial impact on health , especially in children. For example, lead paint was banned for household use in Brisbane, Australia in 1920 due to a lead poisoning epidemic in children; childhood lead poisoning was first described in America in 1914; a 1943 study of children who had recovered from acute lead poisoning showing that most of them had significant long-term deficits and others who showed no other physical symptoms had decreased neurological function. 16 As a result, Kettering and Midgeley were removed from their positions as president and vice president of Ethyl respectively.

Despite the controversy surrounding Ethyl and the use of TEL in petrol, techniques for measuring lead levels in the 1920s were primitive in contrast with today’s standards, and thus no striking evidence against TEL was found, and no regulatory action was taken until much later. 17

Eliminating lead

Despite many roadblocks along the way, Kettering and Midgeley’s mission for a fuel which could operate under higher compression was successful. 90% of petrol sold in USA contained TEL by 1936, and by 1963 this figure had risen to >98%, with lead usage in petrol in USA peaking at 279000 metric tons [6]. 18 In the UK, 2300 tons of lead were added to petrol per year, with almost half of all petrol sold being leaded in 1993. 19

With the introduction of regulation regarding catalytic converters to cars to reduce the environmental impact of exhaust gases all around the world, due to lead particles rendering catalytic converters useless when passed through, in conjunction with a better understanding of the toxic nature of lead and TEL, leaded petrol was phased out in USA beginning in the 1970s despite the financial disincentives of doing so, with it even being outright banned in 1996, being replaced by other anti- knock agents such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE).

Figure 6: consumption of lead in petrol in USA [6]

15 Thomas Midgeley Jr., ‘Tetraethyl Lead Poison Hazards’, accessed 10 th August 2023, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/ie50188a020. 16 Needleman (note 12).

17 Kovarik (note 5). 18 Seyferth (note 7).

19 V. M. Thomas, ‘The Elimination of Lead in Gasoline’, accessed 15 th August 2023, https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.eg.20.110195.001505.

History of leaded petrol

Aftermath

After almost a century of TEL use in petrol, it has caused almost irreparable damage to human society, with many generations of children growing up inhaling lead fumes from car exhaust. Screening studies in eastern U.S. cities in the 1960s found that 10% – 20% of inner-city children had blood lead levels over 40 µg/dl (5 µg/dl is a level that the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have stated it requires global and regional interventions in children). 20 Currently, around 1 in 3 children, or 800 million globally, have blood lead levels higher than the recommended level of 5 µg/dl, which may damage the brain before they can fully develop, leading to lifelong neurological, cognitive and physical impairment, as well as mental health and behavioural problems and an increase in crime and violence. 21

Figure 7: Distribution of teachers’ ratings in relation to dentine lead concentrations 22

Research shows that 1941-1975 petrol lead use explained 90% of the 1964-1998 variation in the USA violent crime rate, as well as a clear relationship between lead exposure and USA burglary and crime rates. 23

In total, it is estimated that the phaseout of leaded petrol was increasing global GDP by 4 percent, or $2.4 trillion (counting health savings as well as social benefits from higher IQ and lower crime), as well as 1.2 million lives directly saved per year. 24 However, since leaded petrol is still in use in aviation with no plans for its replacement soon, children right now are still being poisoned by leaded exhaust fumes and TEL that have settled in the soil and dust from decades of misuse.

20 Needleman (note 12); UNICEF, accessed 15 th August 2023, https://www.unicef.org/reports/toxic-truth- childrens-exposure-to-lead-pollution-2020 21 Kovarik (note 11). 22 Needleman (note 12). 23 Rick Nevin, ‘Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure’, accessed 18 th August 2023, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935107000503?via%3Dihub. 24 Peter L. Tsai, Thomas H. Hatfield, ‘Global Benefits from the Phaseout of Leaded Fuel’, accessed 18 th August 2023, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26329321.

History of leaded petrol

Figure 8: Relationship between blood lead level and crime rate (with 19-year lag) 25

Conclusion

Despite Kettering and Midgeley’s breakthroughs in anti -knock technology in the 1920s being seen as a massive leap forward in the automobile industry, the lead released into the earth and atmosphere for decades have caused irreparable damages to generations of people all around the world and would go down as one of the worst mistakes of the 20 th century. The use of TEL as an additive hampered the development of generations of children and decreased the overall intellect of humanity by a significant amount.

25 Nevin (note 23).

Should the government prioritize energy security over the energy transition?

Oliver Riches

The Ukraine war has had a major role in causing the highest inflation in the UK for 30 years, at 10% in May 2023, and has put more emphasis than ever on the importance of energy security. Of course, with key dates such as net-zero by 2050 and all electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035, the energy transition is a major priority for the government, as part of their commitments to help reduce climate change. However, the Conservative government has an impossible challenge ahead of them, namely, getting re-elected in 2024. With the Conservatives needing support from working class voters to win the next election, particularly those that they ‘borrowed’ from the Red Wall in the last election, they must recognize that getting inflation under control and therefore reducing the cost of living is a more crucial priority for their re-election than saving the planet. So, should the government look to secure our energy sources with new oil and gas fields, or focus on shifting the UK’s energy to green sources? The cost of living crisis is the problem which the government most urgently needs to tackle. High inflation caused by a huge increase in the cost of energy, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, peaked at 11.1% in October of the same year. It is the key priority for the government to bring this number back down, as the rising cost of living is crippling UK households. Measures like raising interest rates would work if the inflation was caused on the demand side, but this is not working quickly enough due to the inflation being supply- sided. The key is to change the UK’s energy dependence. At the moment, the UK relies heavily on Qatar, the USA, and until recently, Russia, for imports of oil and natural gas. The government must take our energy production into its own hands if the UK is to be a sustainable and secure economy moving forwards. Over the past fifty years, we have seen how powerful energy is as a geopolitical weapon, and to let other countries hold that power over us, to have that amount of control of the UK economy, cannot continue, as its effects over the last two years have been devastating. The government has recently announced a hundred new oil exploration permits in the North Sea. This is the right move to secure the UK’s energy sources. But if the energy transition can achieve the same effects as gaining energy security, and in a clean, sustainable way, then why should the government focus on gaining energy security through any other means? The energy transition is going to take decades. One of the negative products of a democracy, such as the UK, is that governments have to seek re-election every 5 years, and are therefore very short- sighted, and instead of setting up the country in the long-term, short-term results are sought, because their number one priority, is to be re-elected. It is often thought that governments can think more long- term than corporations, who just try to make profits for the next quarterly review; however, the opposite is true. If a company doesn’t make profit for a few quarters, it can still be sustainable over a long period, but if a government does not return prosperity by focusing on the long-term, compromising the present, they will not be voted back in. This means that the government, from their perspective, to stand any chance of re-election in 2024, should focus on getting inflation down and reducing the cost of living, even if that means allowing more production of fossil fuels in the UK. As the EU diversifies its oil and gas production to Algeria and Mozambique, the UK has no choice but to follow

Energy security/energy transition

suit, as a secure and affordable supply of energy must be secured before we can make it clean and locally produced, which is the aim of major energy firms.

As seen by the by-election in Uxbridge, there is still a majority in the UK that would rather have affordable, secure energy and fewer climate-saving restrictions than an increase in tariffs and taxes to penalize the use of polluting cars and fossil fuels. It is already seen that both major parties are distancing themselves from green policies, as they realize that the majority of swing voters would rather lower the cost of living than have the UK contribute almost negligibly to the global climate change effort. Therefore, for the current government, energy security is a more important policy than the energy transition. However, there is of course an argument for the energy transition. If the government invests in new fossil fuels that will need to be replaced later, more money is being spent in the long run than if we accelerated to green energy now. The time to act on climate change is now, and of course the UK cannot sit back and say that it contributes so little to climate change that we shouldn’t bother to act ourselves ; the UK must continue to lead the way in green energy production. The time to act for climate change was years ago, and through British research, other countries too can follow suit. The research done in the UK can make sustainable technology cheaper and more accessible for the countries that need it most – those in South America and Africa. Not only is it more cost efficient to prioritize the energy transition but we will also see the effects of the transition on the UK economy even sooner. Due to the UK not being oil rich itself, the only way to locally produce affordable, secure energy is through green sources such as wind and solar, in both of which the UK is world-leading. The UK is the global leader in offshore wind energy, so much so that we are exporting much of it via a new cable in the North Sea to the demand in Germany. Should the UK therefore continue investment in wind and solar, as it is clear that our technology now is good enough to supply large quantities efficiently? Probably not. While the technology is sufficient now, it will only get cheaper and more reliable as time goes on, another reason to put off the transition and just focus on security for now. Is an acceleration of the transition even needed? Recent reports by the International Energy Agency have shown that for the first time, global investment was greater in solar than oil. It predicts that in 2023, 60.7% of all energy investment will be in clean energy. This includes improving grids, researching low-emission fuels such as green and blue hydrogen (green is made using electrolysis of water whereas blue is made with natural gas) and nuclear projects. ‘ If these trends continue until 2030 ’ it is expected that ‘ spending would exceed that required to meet the Paris Agreement carbon reduction goals, limiting climatic warming to 1.5C ’ . This report suggests that we can prioritize our energy security without putting the planet at further risk, though it does imply that the trend in increasing levels of investment in renewables year-on-year needs to be continued. Although it is true that the benefits of gaining energy security could be achieved through the energy transition, a number of major obstacles stand in the way. Firstly, the amount of time it takes for private firms, e.g. BP, Shell, to be given permission to build solar farms and wind farms, is too long. For wind farms, the minimum time it takes to create an application and for it to be reviewed is 10 months. The key to secure our energy, and transition it to renewable sources, is to incentivize private firms to do so.

Energy security/energy transition

The government, especially a Conservative one, would never set up an operation to do so themselves, costing the taxpayer billions. Instead they must entice private firms to do so. Therefore it is crucial to speed up the granting of permission for projects, decrease the number of barriers and the amount of bureaucracy, and to add other incentives for private companies to build sustainable energy farms. Secondly, the upfront investment cost for any private company is extremely unattractive. Green energy farms have very low maintenance and production costs, but not low enough so that the initial investment fee seems like a profitable decision to large companies without new legislation to entice firms. This low rate of return, in addition to the fact that more research into renewable technology decreases the costs, is putting off business from investing now, instead waiting, perhaps indefinitely, until the investment appears to be worth it. Further subsidization from the government could be the solution, but at even more cost to the taxpayer, which would undoubtedly be an unpopular decision. One possible solution for this may be to increase the amount of tax energy companies have to pay when selling oil and gas, or the energy produced using fossil fuels, and further decrease the tax paid on green energy. In addition, an attractive and cost effective option would be a deal whereby energy companies receive major tax relief over an extended period in return for large investment into green energy farms. For example, BP and Shell have both pledged to invest half of their profits until 2030 into green energy projects. To incentivize them to spend further amounts of money now, the government could offer a large tax relief on their corporation tax until 2040, or another sensible date that aids both parties as much as possible. Thirdly, not only is large private investment needed, but also public investment at great cost to the taxpayer, as converting previously gas and oil dependent consumption to electricity requires a much bigger and more powerful grid. For example, stoves, ovens, heating and cars are all polluters that need to be switched to an electricity dependence. However, the national grid needs major upgrades, especially in the North. The other major cost to the government is a new pipeline that will need construction. Major oil companies have agreed that it is not possible to run cars on hydrogen, as there is no way to store enough in a car to make travel efficient. However, this is the agreed way ahead for trucks and other large road vehicles. A new hydrogen pipeline will have to be built, but will lie empty until there is enough demand, at which point, the natural gas pipeline will begin to become empty as the demand dries up for gas. This means at least one multi-billion dollar pipeline will be empty at almost all times. This is a classic case of companies unwilling to build infrastructure without demand, and demand being stagnant without infrastructure. The government will forced to step in if it wishes to break this deadlock. These huge costs to the government are extremely unattractive, as the Conservatives seek to decrease the level of national debt with high tax and low government spending. However, they will be necessary, and under an all but inevitable Labour government, there will likely be far less hesitation. It is important to remember, though, that climate change will be decided in third world countries in Africa and South America, by people who do not care what energy they consume. What they care about, and rightly so, is putting the next meal on the table, lighting their house, and staying warm. No matter how much the UK transitions, it will not fall to us to solve climate change. Therefore, although we should continue to aim for net-zero in the long run, for now the government should prioritize energy security, and the way to best incentivize firms is to use tax relief to entice them into further investment

Energy security/energy transition

into green energy farms in the UK, so that we can enjoy locally produced, clean, secure and affordable energy and regain the power that foreign, oil-rich countries have held over us for decades. The cost of living crisis plagues the UK in 2023, and with an election looming, surely the correct course of action is take back control and put energy security at the top of the government’s to -do list.

To what extent is hydrogen the fuel of the future?

Adib Rahman

Introduction

Hydrogen, the first element in the periodic table and the most abundant element in the universe, has the potential to provide us with sustainable energy for generations. The growing population and development of up-and-coming countries means that there is an increasing demand for energy. This, coupled with the ongoing climate crisis, means that there is an urgent need for new, reliable, clean and sustainable sources of energy. Is hydrogen a viable solution and can it become the fuel of the future?

What makes hydrogen a viable energy source?

As mentioned earlier, the world needs energy that is produced in an environmentally friendly manner, and one of the major benefits of hydrogen as an energy carrier is that it provides emission-free energy. When used in fuel cells, the only products are electricity heat and water which complies with the requirements of an emission-free source of energy. In sectors such as transportation, hydrogen can play a pivotal role in decarbonization. Shifting to an energy profile that make greater use of hydrogen energy will ultimately provide a very effective mitigation technique against climate change. Another benefit of hydrogen as an energy carrier is its very high specific energy (or gravimetric energy, the stored energy per unit mass) compared to other fuels. This makes hydrogen a feasible option for weight- sensitive applications such as in aviation and aerospace.

Figure 1: graph showing the specific energy of hydrogen in comparison to other common energy sources Date accessed 19/08/23

Furthermore, hydrogen is renewable and has great abundance as it can be obtained from a variety of sources, including from water and natural gases. The methods of producing hydrogen will be explored later.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen in combustion engines

There are two main ways of obtaining energy from hydrogen, the first being the combustion of hydrogen in a combustion engine. Hydrogen is burned with oxygen to release energy and water. The energy released is heat energy which causes the hot gases to expand, generating mechanical energy used in the engine to generate electricity.

2𝐻 2 (𝑔)+ 𝑂 2 (𝑔)→ 2𝐻 2 𝑂 + 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦

As seen in the equation, this method produces no carbon emissions and is seemingly faultless. However, a disadvantage of this method is that it could cause the formation of nitrogen oxides which are toxic and pollutant gases. The high temperatures can cause the NN triple bond in nitrogen to break and provide enough activation energy for a reaction between nitrogen and oxygen to form these harmful gases known as N 𝑂 𝑥 . It is for this reason that hydrogen combustion engines are not considered zero emission and have become less appealing.

Hydrogen in fuel cells

The other more attractive method of obtaining energy from hydrogen is the use of it in fuel cells. This makes use of an electrochemical process rather than a combustion process, meaning it completely avoids the chance of pollutant gases being formed. A fuel cell consists of a positive electrode and negative electrode. The hydrogen is pumped to the anode whilst air (containing oxygen) is supplied to the cathode. A catalyst (platinum) is used to split hydrogen molecules into hydrogen ions and electrons. The electrons and hydrogen ions now have two different pathways as they travel towards the oxygen. The electrons travel through an external wire allowing an electric current to flow in the circuit and

therefore a flow of electricity, while the hydrogen ions travel through the electrolyte 1 to the cathode and there is now a reaction between oxygen the electrons and hydrogen ions to form water and heat energy.

+ +4𝑒 −

𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑜𝑑𝑒: 2𝐻 2 →4𝐻

+ + 4𝑒 − →2𝐻

Reaction at cathode: 𝑂 2 +4𝐻

2 𝑂

Overall reaction 2𝐻 2 + 𝑂 2 →2𝐻 2 𝑂

Figure 2: the processes in a fuel cell https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Fuel_cell; date accessed 19/08/23

The chemical energy of hydrogen is directly transferred to electrical energy making fuel cells very efficient in comparison to hydrogen combustion engines, as they require an intermediate store of thermal energy, meaning that there is some energy lost as heat. There are many different types of fuel cells that have function in a similar fashion but work best for different applications. An example is the

1 An electrolyte inhibits the movement of electrons.

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