A gigantic commercial State is arising to menace our prosperity, and contend with us for the trade of the world... The toys, and the dolls, and the fairy books which your children maltreat in the nursery are made in Germany: nay, the material of your favorite (patriotic) newspaper had the same birthplace as like as not. By the late 1890s, it was clear to the U.K. that Germany was its greatest national security threat. The German Navy Laws of 1898 and 1900 launched a massive naval buildup with the singular objective of liberating the German Empire from the geographic constraints of the Jutland Peninsula. By 1902, the First Lord of the Royal Navy pointed out that “the great new German navy is being carefully built up from the point of view of a war with us.” There is absolutely no doubt that Germany was the U.K.’s gravest national security threat. As a result, London signed a set of agreements with France in April 1904 that came to be known as Entente Cordiale. The entente was immediately tested by Germany in the 1905 First Moroccan Crisis, which only served to strengthen the alliance. Russia was brought into the pact in 1907, creating the Triple Entente. In hindsight, the alliance structure was obvious given Germany’s meteoric rise from unification in 1871. However, one should not underestimate the magnitude of these geopolitical events. For the U.K. and France to resolve centuries of differences and formalize an alliance in 1904 was a tectonic shift – one that they undertook against the grain of history, entrenched enmity, and ideology.
Unipolarity = Globalization
Bipolarity = Bifurcation
Multipolarity = Regionalization
A Bipolar geopolit- ical system leads to a bifurcated global economy as
the two global powers enforce loyalty
Hegemony supports a high degree of global economic integration by providing the global public goods of coordi- nation
A Multipolar system prevents bifurcation as no state is strong enough to enfource compli- ance, but also encourages regionization as economies of scale become critical
ia
8.
Degree of Anarchy (Lowest = Unipolarity, Highest = Perfectly Balanced Multipolarity)
economic cooperation between Western Europe and the Soviet Union. Sure, there were times when Europeans flirted with the other side, such as during the German Chancellor Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik , but these were paltry exceptions to the rule. In a multipolar world, such as the one we inhabit today, the coordination becomes more difficult. In today’s context, this means that the U.S. and China will struggle to enforce their own rules and standards on their own allies, let alone each other. WHO GETS TO TELL FRANCE NOT TO SELL AIRBUS PLANES TO CHINA? In 1896, a bestselling pamphlet in the U.K., “Made in Germany,” painted an ominous picture:
American Consequences
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