THE WAY OF THE WARRIOR INOUE-NAKATANI: HEAD-TO-HEAD
DAVID COLDWELL ON INOUE-NAKATANI Trainer and broadcaster David Coldwell is truly one of the best in the sport in breaking down a matchup and analyzing fight styles. To Coldwell, Inoue-Nakatani would be one of the signature boxing events of the year. Below, he gives his thoughts on the fight: ON THE MATCHUP: “They are both very good at what they do. Nakatani is very long. He’s very tall. And when he chooses to, he sinks back and can fire off that long back hand very well. Then, when he wants to fight on the inside, his short punches are really good. He doesn’t have to load up too much to generate real power. I think he’s a very dangerous fighter on the inside for such a tall man. “You’d like to say that he has the advantage at range because he has the longer arms and he’s very tall, but Inoue’s distance control is fantastic. His ring generalship is elite. He makes fighters believe that they are in range, but they actually are not. They’re in his range, not their range.” ON TECHNICAL FLAWS THAT INOUE CAN EXPLOIT: “Inoue is the tidier and more economical of the fighters. When Nakatani decides to go, he leaves a lot of gaps. He’ll throw his head at you. He won’t stay disciplined with his range. A lot of times when Nakatani throws his left hand, he’ll throw it with his elbow up high. Even when he’s in close range, he’ll leave his elbow high. We know that Inoue is a great body puncher, and Nakatani’s rib cage is wide open during those moments. “When Nakatani goes to work, he can get a little too exuberant, a little too carried away with himself, where he will kind of square himself up and he’ll look wide open for the right hand. And Inoue doesn’t need leverage to throw the straight right hand. It doesn’t have to be a long right hand. It can be a short one.” ON INOUE’S PAST DEFENSIVE ISSUES: “When Inoue was going through the weight divisions, when he was The Monster, destroying
of him doing it. “Nakatani throws a lot of punches. But if you take a look at him technically while he’s throwing these punches, even when they land clean and have an effect on his opponents, he leaves a lot of gaps. And Inoue’s technique is very precise. He doesn’t have to have a lot of leverage for whatever punch he throws – the right hand, left hook, the right uppercut – he can land it fast and short.” WHAT HAPPENS IF THE FIGHT STAYS AT RANGE: “If Nakatani can keep it at range, you would think that the bigger, longer guy would have the advantage. But Inoue’s got very good feet. And he can squeeze you. And he can suffocate you. And his hand position is very, very good when he’s focused. And he will target the body. “I don’t think that Nakatani has the discipline to stay at range, to keep his body back, to get his punches back fast enough. Even when he’s at range, he gets a little lazy with that lead hand. Inoue will look for Nakatani to make mistakes, and with clever foot pressure, he will capitalize on them.” HOW HE THINKS THE FIGHT WILL PLAY OUT: “I think that Nakatani will have all the intentions of keeping it long, at distance. But when someone’s putting the pressure on you and they are a great fighter, it seems like every punch you throw, you’re falling just short. I know that Inoue will be very patient when the fight’s at long range. I can see Nakatani then trying to get wilder, where he really wants to land his shot. That’s where he falls in and gets closer, because he knows he can hit something there. That’s where I think the fight will be. “And I think it will be a great fight because Nakatani won’t stop throwing. And Inoue won’t be able to throw just one shot and then it will be over. I think it’s going to be a give-and-take fight, but I think it will be a fight where the majority of it will be on Inoue’s terms. I don’t think Nakatani will keep it boring for long, even if that would suit him. “And if the fight does turn out to be a war, I think that would favor Inoue, because of the gaps that Nakatani leaves. Inoue is a lot tidier, a lot more compact, a lot more precise with his punches. He would thrive in that scenario.”
everybody, he got to the point where it wasn’t just inner confidence, it was an expectation that whoever he got in there, he was going to knock out. “But when you get higher up in the weight divisions, eventually what happens is that the power gets diluted a little bit. The shots still hurt, but maybe you
his signature shot and it’s a devastating punch. But Nakatani digs to the body with all his punches: a jab, hook, straight shot or uppercut. In particular, his left uppercut to the body can be pulverizing. Inoue probably has the advantage with single shots to the body, but Nakatani’s overall focus on body punching evens the score here. He’s a committed body puncher from the first bell to the last. ENDURANCE: ADVANTAGE INOUE Although Inoue hasn’t had to go the distance too often, in his last two fights he went 12 rounds and made it look easy. He also had to go 12 hard rounds against Nonito Donaire in their first fight, and again he was the much fresher of the two as the fight ended. Nakatani has gone the 12-round distance twice, and although he isn’t known to fade in fights, he certainly had a lot of trouble in the back half of his most recent bout, against Sebastian Hernandez. Also consider that the Hernandez fight was Nakatani’s first foray at 122 pounds. When that fight ended, it was Nakatani who was more relieved to hear the final bell. PUNCH RESISTANCE: ADVANTAGE NAKATANI Let’s take this advantage with a grain of salt. Inoue has been down twice in recent fights (against Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas), while Nakatani hasn’t been. But Nakatani has also never faced a puncher like Inoue. And furthermore, Nakatani has never been in with a power-puncher like Nery. But there is a second side to that coin. No one would confuse Ramon Cardenas with a pound-for-pound power-puncher, yet he dropped Inoue. And it wasn’t a flash knockdown. To this point, Nakatani’s chin has been better than Inoue’s, but there is still much more to find out in terms of just how good Nakatani’s punch resistance is. DEFENSE: EVEN It’s clear from the two times Inoue was recently knocked down, as well as Donaire’s hook that broke his orbital
bone, that Inoue can have trouble defending left hands. Inoue’s right hand will often be a little low. In addition, when he comes forward, he sometimes will have his head ahead of his hands. That’s the exact scenario where Cardenas knocked him down last year. After the Cardenas fight, it was evident that Inoue and his father had worked on tightening up his defense, and he gave Akhmadaliev and Picasso less to work with in those fights. Nakatani has three specific issues with defense. His punches are often long or wide, which leads to openings for opponents. Similarly, because he so often throws long-sequence combinations, opponents can counter or trade with him knowing that Nakatani will be there to hit. Perhaps most concerningly, the Hernandez fight showed that Nakatani’s defense in the trenches isn’t as good as it should be. Hernandez was much more capable in close, and Nakatani didn’t look very confident in clinching. That’s a part of his defense that has to improve. Overall, both fighters have defensive holes that can be exploited. But to Inoue’s credit, when he has gotten hurt or dropped, he has demonstrated that he can tighten up his defense throughout the rest of the fight. RECUPERATIVE POWERS: ADVANTAGE INOUE When Inoue has been floored or wobbled, he somehow can flip a switch and get even better in a fight. And that is a scary proposition. He can self-correct. He can make clearheaded decisions during duress, which is an elite skill. In his major fights, Nakatani hasn’t been hurt the same way that Inoue has, but he sure looked uncomfortable against Hernandez at the end of that fight. And physically, he seemed to be a diminished version of himself. INTANGIBLES: ADVANTAGE INOUE Inoue has much more significant big- fight experience. He has faced a far greater variety of top opponents than Nakatani has. And fighting in front of 50,000 fans won’t bother him.
Another big advantage is his ability to deal with duress. Remember, he fought 10 rounds with a broken orbital bone against Donaire and still won the fight. He came back both times he was dropped to stop his opponents. Meanwhile, in a limited sample size, Nakatani (and trainer Rudy Hernandez) had real issues dealing with Sebastian Hernandez’s relentlessness. Inoue has proven that he can make adjustments between fights or even during a fight. Nakatani has yet to demonstrate this to the same degree. PREDICTION: I’ll admit that I’ve changed my prediction on this fight. Initially I liked Nakatani’s advantages in the matchup. His great left hand, along with Inoue’s problems defending the left hand, were early factors for me. In addition, because of Nakatani’s massive variety of punches, he will have the element of surprise against Inoue. It may take several rounds for Inoue to understand what exactly will be coming back his way. But over time, I have shifted toward Inoue. I really liked Inoue’s performance against Akhmadaliev, and I think that if Inoue fights in a controlled manner and relies more on his inherent boxing skills, he will be really tough to beat for Nakatani. I also favor Inoue’s ring IQ in this matchup. He will find spaces in-between Nakatani’s punches to counter. He will find opportune moments to place Nakatani on his back foot. In addition, he will make Nakatani pay for some of his casual punches. Nakatani may still have the early advantages in the fight, but I like Inoue’s ability to think through solutions, find things that work and correct his own flaws. His experience, decisiveness and in-ring knowledge will be the final separators in the fight. Nakatani will demonstrate plenty of skills, but Inoue will show that he is the more well- rounded package in the ring. I like Inoue to win a competitive decision. Let’s call it eight rounds to four. »
have to do more of the wearing-out process before you can get rid of an opponent. “I think perhaps
Inoue was getting to be too attack-minded. And when you’re too attack-minded, you can get a little careless, not giving
enough thought about what’s coming back your way. So, it was a mixture of being a little too attack- minded, not giving your opponent enough respect, and it’s also boxing, where you are going to get hit. “Where he is now, he’s
thinking a lot more about what he’s doing in the ring. His coaching team is probably telling him, ‘Now we’re fighting bigger guys. We have to rely on our boxing more.’ And he’s a great boxer, a complete boxer. So, they probably said
to him, ‘You will get them out of there, but it will be a breaking-down process, so therefore you need to use your boxing IQ.’ Because he’s using his IQ more, he’s not leaving as many gaps when he’s firing.” ON NAKATANI PROVIDING COUNTERING OPPORTUNITIES:
“I’m not saying that Nakatani isn’t an intelligent fighter, but I’m not sure that’s so high up on his priorities. When he attacks, he can often be wide open. Sometimes, when a three-punch
combination is enough, he’ll go for four or five. And with the last two punches, he’s now lost his shape. “Even when he’s chest-to-chest up close and he’s exchanging, he just wants to impose his will. He could make it easier for himself, but he doesn’t choose to, and there’s a regular pattern
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