American Consequences - January 2018

adamant about wanting to accomplish these two items. They are both part of their original growth agenda – the others being tax and health care reform. Both efforts are already underway and do not require congressional approval to accomplish. If the GOP can achieve these objectives, they will stimulate economic growth via increased jobs and cash flow. January 30 - February 4 China releases government and Caixin PMI data. January 31 The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on interest rates. The markets will be looking for commentary on the path of rate hikes going forward, and also any changes to how the Fed plans to wind down the balance sheet. Expectations currently sit at three rate hikes this year. February 7 - 8 China releases export and import data. Exports are of interest China produces many of the goods the world consumes so its export data is a read on global economic health. February 15 U.S. Producer Price Index and industrial production data. Another key gauge on inflation and domestic demand.

would need to go higher, which would in turn drop the market’s P/E multiple. And as the P/E drops, the market suddenly becomes cheaper, leaving more room for a move higher. The next legs of the growth story remain an infrastructure bill and industry deregulation. TheWhite House and GOP have been January 23 The Bank of Japan announces its policy decision. Recent speculation in the yen has focused on members of the policymaking committee advocating a pullback on the amount of stimulus. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said they plan to maintain “powerful” stimulus for the foreseeable future. January 24 Markit releases preliminary manufacturing, services, and composite PMI data in the U.S. and the eurozone. This is a key gauge for judging the state of global growth. announcement. Watch commentary on stimulus withdrawal and the path of rate hikes. Recent speculation has centered on the central bank changing to a tightening path (raising rates) going forward. January 26 - 29 U.S. fourth-quarter GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures. These are key measures for the Federal Reserve in terms of its policymaking decisions. They are indicators of economic health and inflation. January 25 European Central Bank policy

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