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STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
INTRO DUCTION:
As shippers plan for 2026, the supply chain landscape remains complex – but more defined than in recent years. After sustained disruption and volatility, organizations are entering the year with a more measured approach to planning, balancing confidence with caution. To better understand how shippers are navigating this environment, Averitt surveyed and interviewed more than 1,000 supply chain and logistics professionals across a wide range of industries. Rather than producing a single forecast, the goal was to capture how organizations are thinking about volume, risk, and execution as they look ahead. The findings point to a clear theme: Confidence remains, but it is conditional. Shippers are recalibrating expectations, prioritizing reliability, and building flexibility into their networks in response to tighter capacity, persistent tariff pressure, and reduced margin for error.
This report explores what that means for 2026—and how shippers are positioning their supply chains for the year ahead.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
VOLUME PROJECTIONS FOR 2026: CONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE
Each year, one question consistently provides the clearest read on shipper sentiment: how organizations expect their shipping volumes to change in the year ahead. Asked consistently for more than a decade, this forward-looking metric offers valuable insight into how shippers are approaching planning, risk, and growth—often before those dynamics fully materialize in the market.
For 2026, the results point to a notable shift in posture.
59.0% of respondents project an increase in shipping volumes, down from 69.7% in 2025 and the lowest share recorded in the past 10 years. At first glance, that headline suggests a sharp drop in optimism. However, the full distribution tells a more nuanced—and more instructive—story.
SHIPPING VOLUMES
80.0%
75.9%
75.9%
73.4%
73.4%
70.0%
69.7%
69.6%
68.4%
66.6%
66.2%
63.2%
60.0%
59.0%
50.0%
40.0%
37.4%
30.0%
28.6%
28.6%
28.5%
27.4%
25.5%
24.7%
24.6%
21.9%
21.4%
20.0%
16.8%
12.2%
10.0%
8.0%
7.3%
5.7%
5.3%
5.1%
3.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.3%
1.9%
0.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Increase
Decrease
No Change
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
A COMPRESSION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
Rather than shifting toward pessimism, respondents overwhelmingly moved toward the middle of the spectrum.
The share of shippers projecting no change in volumes rose to 37.4%, up from 24.6% in 2025. At the same time, the percentage expecting volumes to decline fell to 3.6%, down from 5.7% the year prior and among the lowest readings in the survey’s history. Taken together, these results indicate that while fewer shippers are forecasting growth, even fewer are anticipating contraction. Instead of bracing for a downturn, many organizations are choosing restraint—holding expectations steady while monitoring how conditions evolve.
CONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE, NOT RETRENCHMENT
This distribution reflects what can best be described as conditional confidence. Shippers appear confident that demand will remain intact, yet cautious about assuming growth without clearer signals. Compared with prior years, optimism has softened— but resilience remains. Notably, this pattern differs sharply from true disruption periods, when declines in projected growth were accompanied by spikes in negative sentiment. That is not what the data shows for 2026. Instead, shippers are expressing confidence with guardrails.
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2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
A More Disciplined Approach to Forecasting
The decline in “increase” responses should not be interpreted as a loss of faith in the market. Rather, it signals a more disciplined approach to forecasting in an environment shaped by mixed economic signals, uneven freight demand, and heightened sensitivity to disruption. Inflation pressures have moderated, employment remains resilient, and consumption has held up better than many expected. At the same time, capacity constraints driven by carrier exits, regulatory enforcement, and labor availability have reduced the margin for error across transportation networks. In this context, projecting flat volumes reflects prudence—not paralysis.
Stability as a Strategic Choice
The sharp rise in “no change” responses suggests that many organizations are prioritizing flexibility over aggressive assumptions. By planning for stability, shippers preserve optionality—positioning themselves to respond quickly if demand accelerates, while limiting exposure if conditions soften. Importantly, this mindset is reinforced by the decline in negative sentiment. With fewer respondents anticipating outright declines, the data suggests that concerns about a broad-based downturn have eased, even as uncertainty remains elevated.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT 2026
Viewed through a long-term lens, the 2026 volume projections do not point to fear or retrenchment. They reflect a shipper base that is realistic, risk - aware, and intentional.
Confidence has not disappeared—it has recalibrated. Shippers are entering the year with measured expectations, a heightened focus on execution, and an understanding that stability itself can be a competitive advantage.
Structural Shifts, Not Cyclical Swings: What’s Reshaping the Domestic Freight Market in 2026
What makes 2026 different is not demand volatility but the structural tightening of domestic freight capacity. Even with relatively flat volume expectations, the U.S. transportation market is operating with less slack, fewer recovery options, and higher sensitivity to disruption. Carrier exits, increased compliance enforcement, and driver availability constraints have permanently reduced capacity. These are not cyclical shifts that will self-correct with demand; they represent a leaner operating baseline.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
Execution Risk Has Replaced Demand Risk
With less excess capacity in the system, execution risk has overtaken demand risk as the primary concern for shippers. Planning missteps that once could be corrected quickly now carry outsized consequences—missed pickups, service failures, and unexpected cost exposure. This reality is driving a shift toward more intentional capacity strategies, particularly in core lanes and high-impact operations. Dedicated Fleets as Capacity Security Dedicated fleets are increasingly viewed not as a premium option but as a capacity security strategy. By locking in drivers, equipment, and service standards, shippers gain greater control over service consistency while reducing exposure to spot-market volatility. In a structurally tighter market, dedicated capacity offers predictability where transactional models cannot—providing insulation from compliance-driven exits, seasonal surges, and regional imbalances.
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As markets tighten, Averitt Dedicated helps shippers lock in reliable, compliant capacity, and reduce exposure to volatility.
Learn More At Averitt.com/Dedicated
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
INTERMODAL’S EVOLVING DOMESTIC ROLE
Intermodal is also being reevaluated through a reliability lens. While cost remains a factor, intermodal is increasingly valued for its ability to provide consistency in longer-haul domestic lanes where over-the-road capacity is constrained.
When integrated intentionally alongside truckload and dedicated operations, intermodal becomes a strategic buffer—supporting network resilience rather than serving as a fallback option.
Less Slack Means More Intentional Planning
The disappearance of excess capacity has changed how shippers approach domestic execution. Stability, flexibility, and accountability now outweigh opportunistic savings. As tolerance for disruption declines, the domestic freight market is rewarding disciplined planning and integrated execution—setting the stage for how external pressures, particularly tariffs, are felt downstream.
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2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
TARIFFS IN 2025: FROM POLICY RISK TO OPERATING REALITY
Unlike volume projections, which reflect forward-looking sentiment, the tariff-related survey questions capture impact experienced during 2025 , based on feedback collected late in the year.
In that context, 2025 stands apart.
Tariffs as Lived Experience When asked about the impact of tariffs experienced during 2025:
• 50.6% of respondents reported a negative impact
• 7.3% reported a positive impact
• 42.1% indicated they were unsure
Negative impact emerged as the dominant response for the first time across the years this question has been asked. More notably, uncertainty declined compared with earlier tariff cycles—suggesting shippers were no longer guessing how tariffs might affect them but reporting how they had. Partnerships can ensure operational efficiency and position businesses for success in a complex and evolving logistics environment.
TARIFFS
70.00%
63.20%
60.00%
54.53%
52.19%
50.66%
50.00%
43.32%
42.07%
41.24%
40.00%
Negative Positive Unsure
30.00%
28.84%
20.00%
10.00%
8.39%
7.26%
5.20%
5.20%
0.00%
2018
2019
2020
2025
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
WHY TARIFFS DID NOT DRIVE VOLUME PESSIMISM
Tariffs are now treated less as episodic disruptions and more as a structural condition. While still viewed as unfavorable, they are no longer unfamiliar.
This shift helps explain why heightened tariff impact coincided with measured volume expectations rather than increased pessimism. Shippers are planning for continuity but with greater discipline and fewer assumptions about stability.
While tariffs shape cost and compliance decisions, their operational impact is felt most acutely where international freight meets domestic execution— at ports, borders, and inland transfer points.
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2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
INTERNATIONAL AND CROSS-BORDER STRATEGY IN 2026: OPERATING THROUGH UNCERTAINTY, NOT BEYOND IT
For shippers, international and cross-border freight entering 2026 does not feel stable. Tariff headlines remain. Enforcement has tightened. Landed costs remain challenging to forecast. Even where market volatility has eased, operational strain remains high.
Shippers are not planning beyond uncertainty—they are planning through it.
Real Stories, Real Tariff Navigation
Shippers like i5 Industries scaled global sourcing by pairing customs expertise with transparent cost visibility — even navigating last-minute tariff changes without disastrous penalties. Their experience shows why tariff awareness and integrated logistics execution matter.
Tariffs as a Daily Operational Strain Tariffs now represent a continuous operational burden rather than a discrete event. Classification accuracy, duty treatment, and compliance scrutiny carry real consequences, with limited tolerance for error. Delays at ports or borders can quickly cascade into downstream disruption—tying up inventory, increasing dwell, and amplifying cost exposure once freight enters domestic networks. Customs Brokerage as a Frontline Capability In this environment, customs brokerage has become a frontline control point rather than a back-office function. Effective brokerage helps shippers: • Navigate tariff classifications accurately • Reduce compliance-related holds • Maintain velocity through ports and borders • Protect inland execution from avoidable disruption
Listen and Learn: How One Shipper Navigates Tariffs
Integrated brokerage allows issues to be identified and addressed before they stall the network.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
Canada and Mexico remain central to American supply chains, but cross-border execution is under greater scrutiny. Enforcement around driver qualifications and operating authority has increased, raising the stakes for noncompliant practices. CROSS-BORDER EXECUTION AND COMPLIANCE DISCIPLINE
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SHIPPERS ARE PRIORITIZING PARTNERS THAT:
• Do not use B-1 drivers • Do not rely on noncompliant capacity • Maintain clear accountability on both sides of the border
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In a constrained environment, compliance failures are harder to absorb and more expensive to correct.
Control at the Port: The Role of Asset-Based Drayage
Ports remain one of the most sensitive pressure points in international supply chains. Asset-based drayage provides control where transactional models fall short—reducing dwell, improving container turns, and maintaining visibility once freight hits the ground.
Direct control over drayage capacity enables tighter coordination with inland transportation and warehousing.
Strategic Warehousing as a Release Valve
Warehouses and distribution centers positioned near seaports and inland gateways can provide critical flexibility. These facilities allow shippers to stage, deconsolidate, transload, and reposition inventory quickly—relieving pressure when uncertainty spikes.
When integrated with drayage and transportation, they allow freight to keep moving even when conditions change.
Su strate
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
Integration as the Differentiator
What This Means for 2026
International success in 2026 depends less on optimization and more on integration. Shippers are increasingly seeking partners that can connect:
Tariffs are not fading. Enforcement is not loosening. And the headlines are not going away.
The shippers best positioned for 2026 will be those that:
• International forwarding • Customs brokerage • Cross-border transportation • Asset-based drayage • Domestic transportation • Distribution and fulfillment
• Treat compliance as a strategic asset • Secure control at ports and borders • Build inland flexibility into their networks • Partner with providers that integrate global complexity with domestic reliability Confidence entering 2026 is conditional. In international and cross-border supply chains, confidence is earned through execution—where control, compliance, and speed to market determine whether uncertainty becomes disruption or simply another condition to be managed.
Under a unified operating model, these capabilities reduce handoffs, improve visibility, and convert complexity into execution discipline.
PUTTING STRATEGY INTO ACTION
The insights throughout this report point to a clear conclusion: Supply chain success in 2026 will not be defined by prediction alone. It will be defined by preparation, execution discipline, and the ability to adapt as conditions change. Shippers today are operating in an environment shaped by structural capacity constraints, persistent tariff pressure, heightened compliance scrutiny, and reduced margin for error. Confidence remains—but it is conditional. And that reality is forcing organizations to reassess whether their current supply chain strategies are built for resilience, not just efficiency.
This is where a strategic reexamination can create meaningful advantage.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
A CONSULTATIVE APPROACH TO SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGY
At Averitt, we work with shippers to evaluate how their transportation, distribution, and international networks are performing under today’s conditions—not idealized ones. Our approach is consultative by design, focused on identifying risks, uncovering opportunities for greater control, and aligning execution with long-term business goals.
That often includes examining:
• How capacity is secured across domestic, intermodal, and dedicated operations • Where execution risk exists within current transportation strategies • How tariffs, compliance, and cross-border requirements are being managed in practice • Whether port, drayage, and inland strategies support speed and flexibility • How well current networks can adapt when conditions change
Rather than prescribing a one-size-fits- all solution, we work alongside shippers to reexamine what’s working, what’s exposed, and where integrated strategies can improve reliability, visibility, and performance.
2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
START THE CONVERSATION
If the themes in this report reflect challenges—or opportunities— you’re navigating today, now is the right time to reassess your supply chain strategy. Request a consultation with an Averitt supply chain expert to discuss your current network, identify potential gaps, and explore strategies designed for today’s realities and tomorrow’s demands.
Start The Conversation At: Averitt.com/Consultation
From the performance of five comes The Power of One.
At Averitt, our extensive service offerings are grouped into five main service units, providing seamless integration and a host of powerful logistics solutions. We tailor customized solutions for everything from international shipping to final mile delivery, consolidating all of your logistics requirements under one award-winning roof. And proving once again that FOR THAT AND MORE, THERE’S AVERITT.
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