2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
A COMPRESSION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
Rather than shifting toward pessimism, respondents overwhelmingly moved toward the middle of the spectrum.
The share of shippers projecting no change in volumes rose to 37.4%, up from 24.6% in 2025. At the same time, the percentage expecting volumes to decline fell to 3.6%, down from 5.7% the year prior and among the lowest readings in the survey’s history. Taken together, these results indicate that while fewer shippers are forecasting growth, even fewer are anticipating contraction. Instead of bracing for a downturn, many organizations are choosing restraint—holding expectations steady while monitoring how conditions evolve.
CONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE, NOT RETRENCHMENT
This distribution reflects what can best be described as conditional confidence. Shippers appear confident that demand will remain intact, yet cautious about assuming growth without clearer signals. Compared with prior years, optimism has softened— but resilience remains. Notably, this pattern differs sharply from true disruption periods, when declines in projected growth were accompanied by spikes in negative sentiment. That is not what the data shows for 2026. Instead, shippers are expressing confidence with guardrails.
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