2026 STATE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAIN
A More Disciplined Approach to Forecasting
The decline in “increase” responses should not be interpreted as a loss of faith in the market. Rather, it signals a more disciplined approach to forecasting in an environment shaped by mixed economic signals, uneven freight demand, and heightened sensitivity to disruption. Inflation pressures have moderated, employment remains resilient, and consumption has held up better than many expected. At the same time, capacity constraints driven by carrier exits, regulatory enforcement, and labor availability have reduced the margin for error across transportation networks. In this context, projecting flat volumes reflects prudence—not paralysis.
Stability as a Strategic Choice
The sharp rise in “no change” responses suggests that many organizations are prioritizing flexibility over aggressive assumptions. By planning for stability, shippers preserve optionality—positioning themselves to respond quickly if demand accelerates, while limiting exposure if conditions soften. Importantly, this mindset is reinforced by the decline in negative sentiment. With fewer respondents anticipating outright declines, the data suggests that concerns about a broad-based downturn have eased, even as uncertainty remains elevated.
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