storage, 13 geothermal, and tidal power, for example) could contribute to this potential need for dispatchable power. These technologies are at earlier stages of technical and commercial maturity, compared with nuclear, and each has different challenges in deploying at scale. Can nuclear power provide this degree of additional electricity? Such a jump in nuclear capacity would be daunting for the industry, which at its peak has grown at a maximum of approximately 30 GW per year globally (a rate achieved in the 1980s but not since). 14 With assumptions that new reactors begin coming online by 2030 and reach scale by 2035,
Our modeling reveals that the energy transition could require an additional 400 to 800 GW of new nuclear—which could represent up to 10 to 20 percent of future global electricity demand—to meet the need for dispatchable power (that is, not wind and solar) by 2050 (Exhibit 2). 11 Notably, technology innovation, market dynamics, and construction costs could affect these projections significantly. In recent years, for example, the growth of renewables has consistently outperformed projections. 12 In addition, alternative dispatchable low- and zero-carbon technologies outside of nuclear power (long-duration energy
Exhibit 2 Demand for nuclear power is projected to double or even triple by 2050 based on today’s capacity. Web <2023> <RapidNuclear> Exhibit <2> of <3>
1,172
With forecasted nuclear adoption +238 With high nuclear adoption +125 Scenario capacity additions 2
2050 global nuclear generating capacity required for net-zero emissions with US uptake sensitivities, 1 gigawatts (GW)
With low nuclear adoption +396
Net new capacity +759
413
Current operating and “nearing completion” capacity
Net-zero global and domestic composite modeling shows a doubling to tripling of installed nuclear generating capacity by 2050
1 US required build-out modeling has explored nuclear sensitivities in more depth and shows that required capacity is highly sensitive to the build-out of renew ables, transmission and distribution constraints, and the development of competing firming technologies, most notably carbon capture and underground storage. - ²When accounting for the age of the current global fleet, an additional ~100 to ~250 GW of new builds could be required to replace retiring capacity, depending on plant life extensions. Source: Examining supply-side options to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035 , National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Aug 2022; World Energy Outlook 2021, IEA; Net-Zero America Project, Princeton; McKinsey analysis
McKinsey & Company
11 Excludes nontraditional off-takers (for example, hydrogen generation, industrial heat, and desalination). 12 “Renewable-energy development,” October 28, 2022. 13 For more on the potential of long-duration energy storage technologies, see Net-zero power: Long-duration energy storage for a renewable grid , LDES Council in collaboration with McKinsey as a knowledge partner, November 22, 2021. 14 Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) database, accessed December 13, 2022.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
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