up. Governments could offer guarantees or direct financing. Global power producers could consider spreading risks over large balance sheets. For example, the US Department of Energy Loan Program Office is available to provide low-cost financing, but such support is not consistent across all future nuclear nations. 2. Ramp up the labor force for manufacturing, construction, and operation. Today in the United States and Canada, for example, the nuclear industry provides approximately 130,000 direct jobs and nearly 600,000 total jobs (indirect plus direct). Our analysis suggests that the nuclear workforce in these two countries alone would need to grow to more than one million people—and to more than five million globally— for the industry to increase capacity to 50 GW per year. The industry and governments could coordinate on capability-building programs that include recruitment, training, apprenticeship, and placement, such as energy company EDF’s efforts to train welders in anticipation of a new nuclear power station in the United Kingdom. 28 3. Establish streamlined global licensing processes. Industry leaders, regulators, and policy makers could set up an industry consortium (or empower an existing one) to define global licensing requirements and proactively work with governments to lay out a road map for scaling up. In the natural gas industry, for example, the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL)—often in cooperation with other organizations, such as the American Petroleum Institute—defines common technical standards for liquefied natural gas across the globe and works with governments to see those standards codified.
Arab Emirates, a plant has been in development for the past decade and is partially operational. 25 Globally, about 178 GW of capacity is under construction or planned. 26 According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 10 GW of new capacity has been connected to grids each year in recent years. 27 Achieving additional capacity of approximately 50 GW per year thus means a roughly fivefold scale-up for the industry from today’s new-build activity levels, while maintaining existing nuclear plants online. But the industry is at an impasse. Despite positive momentum for the first time in over a decade, the risk that initial construction will go over budget and over schedule may diminish chances that new nuclear will realize its full potential in supporting the energy transition at scale. For the industry to scale up significantly, several near-term actions will need to be considered across financing, supply chain, and regulation. Industry players along the value chain—OEMs, plant operators, regulators, policy makers, and investors—would all play critical roles. We have identified eight key actions for stakeholders to consider. 1. Source new financing for power plant construction across the value chain. Financing will be critical in kick-starting the industry—we estimate that capital costs for a rapid scale- up to meet decarbonization targets could be roughly $500 billion per year. Private investment will need to support the development of new technologies, scaling of the industrial base, and construction of new reactors. Regardless of investment sources, managing cost risks will be vital. Policy support may be necessary to backstop financial risk as the industry scales
25 “Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant,” Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation, accessed December 7, 2022. 26 Based on McKinsey analysis of the World Nuclear Organization database in February 2023 and recently announced projects from press search. 27 “Nuclear power capacity additions and retirements in selected countries and regions by decade in the Net Zero Scenario,” IEA, last updated October 26, 2022. Note that 10 GW of capacity has also been decommissioned; therefore, the total net energy produced from nuclear reactors has remained approximately constant. 28 “Energy Minister opens new training centre to support Hinkley Point C,” EDF, April 28, 2022.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
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