The rise of e-fuels In the coming years, constraints on sustainable biomass feedstocks are expected to create a gap between demand for and supply of fuels with existing technologies. Although biomass feedstocks, notably lignocellulosics, have
significant potential for energy production, 3 practical constraints on their collection mean the global community likely won’t be able to achieve net-zero targets without a shift to e-fuels and dedicated biomass production on marginal lands or surplus agricultural land (Exhibit 3).
Web <2023> <MCK238091 Biofuels Trading> Exhibit <3> of <5>
Exhibit 3 Over the next 30 years, achieving net zero will require a fundamental shift in the way sustainable fuels are produced.
2019
2050
Feedstock
End products
Feedstock
End products
Sustainable aviation fuel
Edible oil
Sustainable aviation fuel
Edible oil
Drop-in diesel
Drop-in diesel
Edible sugars
Edible sugars
Drop-in gasoline
Drop-in gasoline
Waste oils (Annex IX part A)1 Waste oils (Annex IX part B)1
Waste oils (Annex IX part A)1 Waste oils (Annex IX part B)1
Sustainable methane3
Sustainable methane3
Sustainable methanol4
Sustainable methanol4
Lignocellulosic and other2
Lignocellulosic and other2
Ethanol
Ethanol
Industrial (biogenic)
Industrial (biogenic)
point source CO2 or direct air capture
FAME5
FAME5
point source CO2 or direct air capture
1 Availability could potentially be expanded with purposely grown volumes of low indirect land-use change and cover crops. See Renewable Energy Directive (2018/2001), European Commission, Dec 2018. 2 Includes all relatively unconstrained feedstock technologies; ie, power-to-X (PtX), gasification, alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), bio-based or synthetic methane, green hydrogen for refinery use, or more hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) if more feedstock is unlocked. Decreasing demand for ethanol from edible sugars could result in retrofitting ethanol plants to AtJ, practically meeting part of “Lignocellulosic and other” demand. 3 Sustainable methane includes synthetic methane, biomethane, and biogas. The biogas demand estimation is based on McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2022 outlook. 4 Includes methanol as a fuel in transport and as a feedstock in chemicals. 5 Fatty acid methyl ester. Source: McKinsey Sustainable Fuels Cost Model, Achieved Commitments scenario, Apr 2023
McKinsey & Company
3 Göran Berndes et al., “Chapter 2: Bioenergy” in Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation , Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2011.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
114
Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter maker