capacity factor) and proximity to transmission lines would need to be developed for generation of either solar or onshore-wind power. Access to this land could be impeded by siting and permitting challenges, including community pushback. Competition with other uses, such as farming and grazing, could also present obstacles. In addition, high costs and elongated project timelines associated with transmission intercon nection could affect project viability. (For more detailed context, see sidebar “The challenge of finding high-quality land.”)
to create programs that drive labor supply growth, particularly for trade jobs such as local electricians that lack sufficient scale in the industry today.
ACTION AREA 3 Securing access to adequate land with high load factors for the deployment of renewables If the 2030 goals set by the US government are to be met, about 75 percent of all land with strong renewable-energy potential (95th percentile of
The challenge of finding high-quality land
The Achieved Commitments scenario would require building 600 gigawatts (GW) of solar generation and 300 GW of onshore wind. The infrastructure needed for this deployment would take up about 56,000 square kilometers, an area roughly equal to the size of West Virginia, representing approximately 75 percent of all US land with strong renewable-energy potential and proximity to transmission lines. 1 At the state level, the challenge is even greater: only five states have enough high-quality land for the solar deployment they would need for the energy transition. Only seven states have enough high-quality land for the wind infrastructure. 2 Notably, this assessment does not account for two key challenges facing renewables developers: siting and the cost and timeline associated with connecting to the trans mission grid (known as interconnection).
Many US renewables and transmission development projects have been delayed, paused, or even canceled because of these challenges. 3 A 2021 study in the United Kingdom found that local opposition could increase the cost of deploying wind power by 10 to 29 percent. 4 2. Challenges associated with transmission interconnection can dramatically affect project viability, increasing total project costs by 3 to 33 percent. 5 Interconnection costs and timelines are often opaque
Both could further limit the high-quality land available for cost-effective, rapid wind and solar development. 1. Siting is fraught with uncertainty because of the potential for competing land uses and the different stake- holders that could be involved (such as government versus private landowners). The type of resource being deployed will also determine siting challenges. Wind turbines, for example, tend to raise more concerns with local communities. Therefore, turbines must be physically spaced out, resulting in the need for more land per capacity deployed than solar power. At the same time, the physical area disrupted for land uses such as grazing and farming is smaller per energy generated compared with solar power.
to developers when they assess a potential site’s economic viability, adding to the risk and expense associated with renewable- energy development.
1 For the purpose of this analysis, high-quality land is defined as land with a capacity factor in the 95th percentile and above, and within 1.5 miles of an existing transmission line. Note that capacity of transmission lines also plays a role, though this modeling does not incorporate it. Existing transmission lines could already be congested based on existing demand. 2 The five states with sufficient solar are Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. The seven states with sufficient wind are Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. 3 Lawrence Susskind et al., “Sources of opposition to renewable energy projects in the United States,” Energy Policy , June 2022, Volume 165. 4 Stephen Jarvis, The economic costs of NIMBYism: Evidence from renewable energy projects , Energy Institute at Haas working paper number 311, January 2021. 5 “New national lab study quantifies the cost of transmission for renewable energy,” Berkeley Lab, October 24, 2019.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
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