Transmission
As the backbone of the energy system, transmission is vital to a more orderly transition. But widespread deployment of renewables and maintaining a reliable and resilient transmission system would require significant investment. Under the Achieved Commitments scenario, the transmission grid would need $450 billion in capital investment between 2022 and 2030. Expanded transmission infrastructure is required to connect areas with high renewable-energy resources to population centers. The United States has sufficient wind and solar power to meet national needs, but at the regional level, deployment sometimes faces constraints caused by limited land availability. These obstacles are particularly acute in the Northeast (for example, Connecticut does not have sufficient onshore land available to develop adequate renewable capacity for its own demand). A recent study by the New York Indepen dent System Operator (NYISO) found that the pace of transmission development must increase to keep up with renewables development and meet state policy targets. The operator projects that transmission limitations could curtail at least five terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable energy by 2030 and at least ten TWh by 2035. 1 NYISO calculates that this would result in 5 percent less renewable energy to count -
transmission build-out because funds are allocated to transmission projects that improve reliability at the regional
toward New York’s Climate Leadership Community Protection Act target of 100 percent zero-emission electricity by 2040. 2 And regardless of the pace and scale of renewables deployment, the transmission system would need considerable invest ment to upgrade aging infrastructure and - improve resilience in the face of the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events resulting from climate change. However, transmission projects in the United States have been very challenging to execute, which could constrain renewables deployment. Furthermore, transmission is critical to ensure that more rural locations with strong renewable resources benefit from the job growth that will accompany the energy transition. Without the expan sion of transmission, alternative options to meet demand would likely be built closer to the end-demand sources. Transmission investment faces three complex barriers: 1. Undervaluing benefits due to reactive
level. This narrow view disregards larger-scale interregional projects that could provide benefits such as improved reliability, operational flexibility, and lower dispatch costs. 2. Longer project timelines. Siting and permitting can delay projects by ten years or more. The multiple levels of approval needed at the local and federal levels, along with the lack of consistent application processes and frequent public pushback, often lead to greater project costs and a higher chance of failure. 3. Lengthy interconnection wait times. Slow interconnection processes contribute to high rates of projects being withdrawn as well as hefty backlogs of projects, low completion rates, and cost overruns. In 2020, the average wait time for interconnection was roughly four years. That is expected to double by 2030, 3 though the wait time may differ by region. Potential fixes for these barriers to transmission are being piloted or de ployed. - 4 Most, however, remain far from realization, despite a number of attempts at transmission reform over past decades.
planning. Transmission planning shortfalls are partially driven by
planning processes that are siloed and reactive, and do not consider longer time horizons (including the changing energy mix, physical hazards, and cost- effective technology). In addition, the current cost allocation and benefit quantification are a disincentive to
1 2021-2040 system & resource outlook , New York Independent System Operator, September 2022. 2 Ibid. 3 “Generation, storage, and hybrid capacity in interconnection queues,” Berkeley Lab, accessed December 12, 2022.
4 For more information about best practices for regional transmission organization and independent system operator planning, see Transmission planning for the 21st century: Proven practices that increase value and reduce costs , Brattle Group and Grid Strategies, October 2021. The Princeton Net Zero America Project highlights potential transmission solutions in its reports, including streamlined processes and planning of interconnection, and improving efficiency in permitting processes; see Net-Zero America: Potential pathways, infrastructure, and impacts , Princeton University, October 2021.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
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