While scaled build-out of transmission would lead to the most orderly transition, businesses and governments would be prudent to plan for alternatives if transmission gridlock isn’t resolved.
ACTION AREA 5 Creating market mechanisms for expanding firm capacity to ensure reliable and adequate clean energy supply More than 80 percent of today’s power system is made up of flexible sources such as natural gas plants that can ramp up and down quickly to meet sudden shifts in supply or demand. As more renewables come online, the power system would benefit from more flexible power sources to mitigate the intermittency of renewables—for example, to provide power when the sun goes down. Renewables coupled with shorter-duration storage, such as four-hour batteries, are able to satisfy most load demands through intraday balancing. However, the power system will likely also require longer- duration capacity to support longer periods when demand is high and renewable generation is low. That could include dispatchable resources such as natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, combustion of low-carbon fuels, nuclear, or long- duration energy storage. While capacity from these types of resources is critically needed, their utilization is likely to be low (Exhibit 5). Although those resources are forecast to be in operation relatively infrequently compared with today’s natural-gas plants, the dispatchable capacity, or on-demand generation, they provide to the system could be critical for reliability. Many investors are hesitant to finance these resources,
outlook report, 35 the New York Independent System Operator estimates that about 12 to 25 percent of 2040 system capacity will be met by dispatchable emissions-free resources, zero-carbon power generators that can ramp up quickly to meet grid reliability needs. This need is similarly reflected in McKinsey analysis on deep-decarbonization scenarios across several US regions. That research shows that in scenarios with less transmission build-out, systems rely more heavily on dispatchable technologies (natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration) or combustion of clean fuels (renewable natural gas, synthetic natural gas, or zero-carbon hydrogen). These systems could also use technologies such as nuclear and long-duration energy storage to meet grid needs with zero-carbon power. If transmission bottlenecks are not resolved, these alternative dispatchable technologies, now in varying stages of development, would have to go to market and scale at significantly faster speeds than currently planned. (For further detail, see “Action area 6: Accelerating technological innovation to ensure timely deployment of new clean technologies.”)
35 2021-2040 system & resource outlook , New York Independent System Operator, September 2022.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
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