Similar timelines would be too long for developing and deploying a range of newer technologies—such as natural gas with carbon capture, advanced nuclear, hydrogen, and biomass—that could help derisk the energy transition by rapidly scaling up if an alternate technological pathway proved unfeasible. For example, if the timeline for connecting renewable-energy facilities to the transmission grid is not accelerated, alternate technologies would need to generate nearly
500,000 GWh of zero-carbon energy for the United States to be on track for a more orderly transition 44 (see “Action area 4: Reforming transmission development to include proactive planning, fast- track permitting, and systematic consideration of transmission alternatives”). These alternate technologies may need to scale much more rapidly than currently envisioned to produce that output, as shown in Exhibit 6. (For more detailed context, see sidebar “Technological innovation.”)
44 In models of decarbonization across several regions, scenarios with lower electric transmission and distribution investment require additional build-out of alternative technologies, including carbon capture, nuclear, hydrogen, and biomass.
Technological innovation
The first offshore wind farm in the world was built in Denmark in 1991. The first US installation began operations 25 years later in Rhode Island, generating 30 megawatts (MW). Today, only 42 MW of offshore wind capacity is commercially operational in the United States, with less than one gigawatt (GW) in construction and 18 GW of projects in permitting. 1 Our modeling projects that 30 GW would need to be deployed by 2030 in the Achieved Commitments scenario. To achieve that level, all of these projects—and more—would need to come online in the next eight years. Such a timetable is too slow to develop and deploy the newer technologies that would be needed to affordably meet 2030 decarbonization goals.
2030 goals are either already beginning to be piloted (as in the case of long- duration energy storage and direct air capture) or in the early stages of scaling—such as with polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis and membrane-based carbon capture. Some are already widely deployed, but with technical innovation they could realize significant improvement in cost or performance (for example, perovskite solar cells with potential to improve solar module efficiency). While these technologies may not be a significant part of the country’s energy system by 2030, their accelerated scaling over the course of this decade could enable significant scale-up in the 2040s and beyond, when their role in the energy transition could be even more critical.
Grid operators express concern over the pace and scale of the technology development and deployment needed to meet policy requirements while maintaining system reliability. In a September 2022 report, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) warned, “The sheer scale of resources needed to satisfy system reliability and policy requirements within the next 20 years is unprecedented. … DEFRs 2 that provide sustained on-demand power and system stability will be essential to meeting policy objectives while maintaining a reliable electric grid. While essential to the grid of the future, such DEFR technologies are not commercially viable today.” 3 Many of the technologies that could be required to meet the US government’s
1 Offshore wind market report: 2022 edition , US Department of Energy, August 16, 2022. 2 Dispatchable emissions-free resources. 3 2021-2040 system & resource outlook , New York Independent System Operator, September 2022.
Accelerating the journey to net zero
35
Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter maker