selling more with less Sales through the first 11 months of 2024 in Greater Victoria have already surpassed last year’s total, ending the trend of declining annual sales since 2021. The stronger sales activity witnessed this fall is likely to persist into the New Year.
fall by nearly double at 17%. At 2,098, active MLS listings were also down relative to the same month last year for the first time since April 2022 (though it was a very modest decline of 0.1%). That said, inventory remained pretty elevated from a historical perspective at 25% above the prior 10-year November average (of 1,678 active listings). Looking ahead, we expect this trend of recovering sales activity to persist in the months ahead. With another 50-basis- point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada on December 11th, we estimate that buyers using variable rate financing have seen a roughly 19% increase in purchasing power since the Bank began easing its policy rate in June. Pair that with new mortgage insurance rules (effective December 15th) that allow buyers to put lower down payments and secure lower mortgage rates on homes up to $1.5 million, sales should continue to hover near their long-run monthly average levels into the New Year.
Real estate activity in Greater Victoria has been on the up for several months now, buoyed by lower interest rates and improving affordability conditions. The region saw 544 MLS sales in November, a 40% increase relative to last November, marking the fifth consecutive month where sales were higher than the same month last year. Through the first 11 months of 2024, sales of 6,319 were up 10% from the same period last year (5,757) and have already surpassed total annual sales from 2023 (6,054). As such, this marks an end to the trend of declining annual sales that has been in motion since the record year of 2021. Notably, nearly all of this year’s gain has come courtesy of a strong fall housing market. Prior to September, monthly sales had largely mirrored levels from 2023, but since then they have strongly diverged from prior year levels (see this brief article
with six simple charts highlighting how sales activity has improved in Victoria, Vancouver, and Kelowna this fall). As a result of the fall bump in activity, October sales in Greater Victoria were at their long-run monthly average for the first time in two and half years. In November, sales finished at their long-run average for the second consecutive month. Though sales remain below average from a per- capita perspective (the population of Greater Victoria has grown 20% over the past decade), this is a strong first step on the market’s road to recovery. While buyers remained eager to transact in November, sellers had different plans. New listings were below their long-run monthly average for the first time since March, putting additional downward pressure on inventory. Active listings typically decline 9% from October to November, but this November saw them
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