the rennie brief - The Future Housing & Transit Proximity

ACCESSIBILITY the rennie brief

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FUTURE HOUSING & TRANSIT PROXIMITY • 183,000 condo homes across 880 future multi-family projects and 39,000 purpose- built rental homes across 289 future rental projects are expected to be built in Metro Vancouver in the coming years. • Of these future homes, 60% of condo homes and 47% of purpose-built rental homes are expected to be built within 800 metres of existing SkyTrain stations. • When the five future stations included in the Broadway Subway Project and eight as part of the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension are considered, the share increases to 64% for condo homes and 48% for purpose-built rental homes.

JUNE 2021

The addition of new housing along Metro Vancouver’s public transit network, and specifically along the SkyTrain rapid transit network, will be important in accommodating more than one million new residents over the coming three decades.

DATA & DEFINITIONS In this brief we use data from Urban Analytics’ New Housing Source to look at the location and scale of planned and proposed multi-family residential projects in Metro Vancouver. More specifically, we consider the share of new housing that is being planned along the SkyTrain network. In this context, “existing SkyTrain station” refers to all active stations on the Expo, Millennium, and Canada Lines, including the Lonsdale Quay SeaBus station. All references to “future housing” relate to multi-family projects that are currently in various planning stages but have not yet begun selling. And finally, “condo” refers to owned apartments and townhouses. THE OWNERSHIP MARKET There are 183,000 homes across 880 multi-family condo projects that are expected to be built in Metro Vancouver in the coming years (including 87 projects that have a yet-to-be-determined home count). Of these 183,000 homes, 109,000 (60%) will be within 800 metres (m) of an existing SkyTrain station. The proximity-to-transit story differs when these homes are considered by type: 77% of future concrete homes are located within 800m an existing SkyTrain station (135,000), versus 16% of future woodframe homes (32,000), and 6% of future townhomes (16,000). In this context it is also important to note that the vast majority of existing SkyTrain stations (50 of 54, or 93%) are situated north of the Fraser River, which also influences this proximity- to-transit story. Over two-thirds of future multi-family condo homes in Metro Vancouver are expected to be situated north of the Fraser River (with the remaining 32% expected south of the Fraser). When considering future SkyTrain expansion, including the five future stations for the Broadway Subway Project and eight stations planned as part of the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain, the share of future multi-family condo homes within 800m of a SkyTrain station rises to 64%. With specific regard to future concrete homes, the share rises to 79% (from 77%), while the share for future woodframe homes jumps to 29% (from 16%), and more than doubles for townhomes (from 6% to 13%).

THE PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL MARKET Of the 39,000 future purpose-built rental homes across 289 multi-family rental projects currently being planned for the region, almost half (47%, 18,200 homes) will be added within 800m of an existing SkyTrain station. As with future multi-family condo development, the share is higher for concrete (54%, 14,200 homes) and lower for woodframe (32%, 4,000 homes). When the future stations included in the Broadway Subway Project and Surrey-Langley SkyTrain are considered, the share of future purpose-built rental homes within 800m of SkyTrain stations rises to 48%. For concrete, the share rises to 56%, while for woodframe it rises to 33%. It is interesting to note that relative to the ownership market, where 68% of future multi-family additions will be north of the Fraser, over 80% of future purpose-built rental multi-family homes are planned to be north of the Fraser. With the majority of existing SkyTrain stations being located north of the Fraser, it’s somewhat surprising that the share of future purpose-built rental homes situated within 800m of an existing SkyTrain station is lower than the share seen in the ownership segment. WHAT THIS MEANS The current data on future housing additions in the region point to continued densification along the rapid transit network, which is consistent with planning best-practices and models of sustainable housing growth. The expansion of the public transit network will create new opportunities for further residential additions and the establishment of diverse, accessible, multi-family neighbourhoods, which will be especially important in the context of Metro Vancouver adding 1.1 million residents and more than 500,000 new homes by 2050.

For further information please contact Ryan Berlin (rberlin@rennie.com) or Bowen Behan (bbehan@rennie.com). The information set out herein (the “Information”) is intended for informational purposes only. rennie has not verified the information and does not represent, warrant or guarantee the accuracy, correctness and completeness of the information. rennie does not assume any responsibility or liability of any kind in connection with the information and the recipient’s reliance upon the information. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information may change any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie. All housing related data from NHS Live Urban Analytics & rennie as of April 2021.

FUTURE HOUSING & TRANSIT PROXIMITY

800 METRE SKYTRAIN STATION BUFFER EXISTING SKYTRAIN STATIONS UPCOMING/FUTURE CONDO PROJECTS UPCOMING/FUTURE RENTAL PROJECTS

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