2026 Economic Review
Housing Market Update and Outlook Coastal Association of REALTORS ®
Lisa Sturtevant, PhD Chief Economist
April 1, 2026
Year-to-date home sales flat despite lower rates
2026 YTD Closed Sales Compared to 2025
Monthly Closed Sales, CAR
Coastal Association Somerset County Wicomico County Worcester County
-1.0%
2024 2025 2026
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2018–2024 Range 2016-2025 range
+12.5%
nc
-3.2% -9.1% -4.1%
Sussex County
Bright MLS
0 50
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
New pending sales suggest a slow start to the spring market
2026 YTD New Pending Sales Compared to 2025
New Pending Sales, CAR
Coastal Association Somerset County Wicomico County Worcester County
-0.8%
2024 2025 2026
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2018–2024 Range 2016-2025 range
+18.0% +18.7% -11.5%
Sussex County
-9.1% +0.3%
Bright MLS
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Price growth has slowed considerably
2026 YTD Median Sold Price Compared to 2025 Coastal Association -7.0% Somerset County +15.8% Wicomico County -0.9% Worcester County +1.2% Sussex County -7.4% Bright MLS +1.8%
Median Sold Price, Coastal Association year-over-year change
10% 15% 20% 25%
0% 5%
-15% -10% -5%
New construction prices up in Sussex, lower in MD counties
Median Sold Price, Single-Family Detached
CAR
Sussex
2024
2025
2024
2025
+5.5%
+4.2%
$575,000
$545,000
-7.3%
$499,900
+6.3%
$479,900
$375,890
$348,445
$335,000
$315,000
Existing
New
Existing
New
5
Homes are taking longer to sell
YTD Median Days on Market
120 Median Days on Market, Coastal Association
2026 2025 Change
Coastal Association Somerset County Wicomico County Worcester County
59 88 51 60 63 29
41 18 days 40 48 days 39 12 days 44 16 days 47 16 days 21 8 days
100
80
60
Sussex County
Bright MLS
40
20
0
Inventory is still tight relative to historic levels
Feb 2026 Month-End Actives Compared to 2025 Coastal Association +10.0% Somerset County -20.4% Wicomico County +32.3% Worcester County +7.2% Sussex County +6.9% Bright MLS +9.0%
Active Inventory, Coastal Association CAR Somerset
Wicomico
Worcester
Sussex
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Feb 2026 as a % of Feb 2020
Coastal Association Somerset County Wicomico County Worcester County
80% 65% 97% 77% 83% 76%
0 500
Sussex County
Bright MLS
Inventory has risen slowly in CAR, sharp uptick in Sussex
Month-End Active Listings, February
CAR
Sussex
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
0 200 400 600 800
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
8
New listings are at near-historic lows to start 2026
YTD 2026 New Listings Compared to 2025
New Listings, Coastal Association
2024 2025 2026
600
2018–2024 Range 2016-2025 range
Coastal Association Somerset County Wicomico County Worcester County
-9.6%
-14.6% +14.4% -17.7%
500
400
Sussex County
-8.4% -4.7%
300
Bright MLS
200
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
New construction activity very limited in CAR
Residential Building Permits, Coastal Association CAR Wicomico
Worcester
Somerset
Sussex
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
0 500
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Outlook
11
What are some key factors that will drive the 2026 market? • Pent-up demand vs. • Uncertainty and Affordability constraints
12
Mortgage Rates
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Average Rate, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Sources: Freddie Mac
13
Mortgage rates could move higher
10-Year Treasury Yield (%)
Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel)
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
Source: Federal Reserve
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
14
Inflation could move higher this spring
Inflation Consumer Price Index (NSA), Year-over-year change
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
-2%
Source: U.S. BLS
15
Economic conditions appear to be weakening
Monthly Job Change, US
Unemployment Rate (%)
Monthly Job Change (000s)
Avg 2010-2019
1,000
7
800
6
600
400
5
200
4
0
-200
3
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Affordability is driven by both prices and rates
Home prices, payments and affordability – Coastal Association region
Feb 2020 Feb 2021 $225,000 $256,500
Feb 2025 Feb 2026 $349,495 $375,495 6.84% 6.05% $2,534 $2,536 $105,600 $108,700
Date
Median Price
Mortgage Rate
3.47% 2.81%
Monthly Payment
$1,266
$1,801
Income Needed
$54,300
$77,200
Notes: Assumes 10% downpayment, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, average mortgage rate, and average property tax and homeowners’ insurance. Assumes a home buyer spends no more than 28% of income on the monthly payment.
17
Fall through rates are slightly elevated in the CAR market
Contract Fall-Through Rates, Coastal Association and Sussex CAR Sussex
Why did the buyer back out? Bright MLS Area
Home inspection raised too many concerns
53.2%
30%
Buyer changed their mind
23.7%
25%
20%
Seller not willing to provide financial assistance
18.5%
15%
Financing fell through
12.1%
10%
Home did not appraise
4.0%
5%
Issues related to home insurance
0%
2.1%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Bright MLS January 2026 buyer agent survey
18
Homes selling below asking price
Average Sold-to-Original List Price Ratio
CAR Sussex
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Sellers have been more likely to cut asking prices
Share of Closed Sales with a Price Cut CAR Sussex
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
20
Economic Uncertainty
Share saying they are “somewhat” or “very” worried
I will have to cut back on essential spending next year (e.g. groceries, health care)
77%
I will have to cut back on discretionary spending next year (e.g. entertainment, travel)
81%
There will be job cuts or layoffs at my place of employment next year
66%
I personally will lose my job or have my hours cut next year
60%
I will have trouble paying down debt or I will have to take on more debt next year
73%
I will have trouble making my monthly mortgage payment*
57%
Source: Bright MLS nationwide consumer survey, 12/3/2025/12/5/2025 n~=3,000 *Homeowners only
21
Coastal Association Housing Market Expectations for 2026
Wildcards • Conflict in Iran • Labor market • Federal government • New Fed chair
• Delayed spring market • Mortgage rates
Spring: Mid-6% range End of 2026: Around 6%
• More inventory • Slower price growth • Better market for buyers
22
Expectations for the 2026 Housing Market
For Sellers
For Buyers
• Re-set price expectations • Prepare for flexibility in negotiations • Get home “move-in” ready • Understand local market conditions
• Expect more inventory • Take advantage of greater leverage in negotiations • Do not try to “time” rates • Understand local market conditions
For Real Estate Professionals
• Mitigate risk and uncertainty • Be patient and pro-active • Serve as the local expert
23
Market Data and Analysis from Bright Research and insights specifically designed to help brokers and agents be a resource to their clients, colleagues and communities: www.brightmls.com/research
24
Need more information? Contact us! research@brightmls.com Erica Plemmons Senior Housing Economist Lisa Sturtevant Chief Economist
Colby Stout Research Analyst
25
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