MARKET REPORT
at 218.6 million pounds, up 20% from last year. Total new sales for the year now exceed last season by 7%. Assuming a 2.45-billion-pound crop, shipments and commitments represent 84% of total supply versus 76% last year. Given the current level of total commitments and the strong shipment pace sustained this crop year, the industry is on pace to reach a carryout below 500 million pounds, a level not seen in the past three years. This is a welcome sign and much needed as the industry eyes a larger 2024 crop ahead. CROP Land IQ posted their estimate for crop year 2024 bearing acreage of 1.373 million acres. This is a slight downturn from last year. The non-bearing acreage estimate will be released in November and is likely to be lower than last year’s 189,000 acres. New plantings are declining given the economic challenges for the grower. Total acreage peaked in 2021 at 1.65 million acres and has been trending downward. Depending on the results of the non-bearing portion, acreage has declined 8-10%. The 2024 Subjective Estimate was released on May 10 with the NASS forecasting a 3.0-billion-pound crop against 1.38 million bearing acres, which are unchanged from last year. This implies a yield of 2,170 pounds per acre. This estimate is widely considered price-neutral, given the industry was already pricing in a 3.0-billion-pound crop. Market Perspective April shipments exceeded market expectations for a second consecutive month. Both export and domestic shipments gave a strong performance to increase the shipment pace over last year while improving expectations for a carryout at or below 500 million pounds. Market activity has been limited with buyers waiting for the Subjective Estimate for price clarity and confidence. Buying activity is starting to pick up with that estimate behind us confirming market expectations for a 3.0-billion-pound crop. The demand outlook is positive as buyers look to cover their remaining needs of current crop supplies to ensure a smooth transition to the new crop. This should provide for stable to firmer pricing in the coming weeks.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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ALMOND FACTS
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