demographics
04. demographics
A historically slow year for population growth in British Columbia in 2020masked hints of a return to more robust growth in the near-term.
GROWTH SLOWDOWN UNPLANNED IN LOTUSLAND
From a Canadian demographic perspective, the year 2020 will be remembered as the one where international migration hit a wall. With a national immigration target initially set at 341,000 for 2020, the fact that Canada only welcomed 184,000 immigrants has had—and will have—a number of impacts here in BC and in Metro Vancouver. British Columbia’s population only grew by 21,500 in 2020, with its 0.4% annual rate of growth the slowest since 1874; in Metro Vancouver, 2020’s population growth was essentially half of what it was in 2019. With 66% of external migrants and 73% of domestic migrants to the region renting within their first five years of arriving, the slowdown in migration has had a significant impact on the regional rental market, as evidenced by the
purpose-built rental vacancy rate rising from 1.1% in 2019 to 2.6% in 2020—its highest level since 1999. Of some note is the relative resilience of migration to BC in Q4 2020, with the 3,440 international migrants and 4,878 domestic migrants to the province exceeding last year’s Q4 totals by 4% and 136%, respectively. This is a good thing, too, given that we experienced 1,064 more deaths than births in Q4 2020—the largest deficit since data were first collected, going back to Q1 1946. Expect the greenshoots of migration momentum that appeared in Q4 to more fully bloom through the balance of 2021, with a future return to more substantial population growth in BC underscoring our continuing need for an adequate supply of housing.
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