BYTHE NUMBERS
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
POPULATION (2017)
3-YEAR POPULATION GROWTH
JOB GROWTH RATE (2017)
HOME PRICE CHANGE
AVERAGE HOME PRICE (THOUSANDS)
HOME PRICE VS INCOME
4-YEAR RENT INCREASE
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
2,814,330
6%
2.6%
10%
$386
45%
38%
Denver - Aurora, CO
1,976,836
3%
2.9%
8%
$840
19%
32%
San Jose - Sunnyvale, CA
357,305
8%
-2.5%
6%
$406
-4%
31%
Naples - Marco Island, FL
333,577
7%
2.8%
9%
$350
29%
29%
Fort Collins - Lovaland, CO
2,764,960
4%
2.1%
10%
$619
22%
27%
Oakland - Fremont, CA
Top 20 Potential Places for a Landlord Paradise
410,091
5%
1.7%
12%
$260
22%
27%
Salem, OR
1,629,951
4%
1.7%
7%
$1,115
27%
25%
San Francisco - San Mateo, CA
502,146
2%
2.3%
9%
$505
21%
25%
Santa Rosa - Pateluma, CA
2,889,626
5%
3.2%
14%
$494
25%
25%
Seattle - Bellevue, WA
HUGE INCREASES IN AVERAGE RENTS COULD MAKE THESE MARKETS PERFECT.
2,389,228
5%
2.1%
8%
$361
20%
24%
Portland - Vancouver, OR
by Ingo Winzer
2,000,860
9%
3.7%
8%
$335
29%
23%
Austin - Round Rock, TX
f you invest in a rental property, you don't necessarily expect to increase rents every year by more than the rate of inflation, which these days has been run- ning less than two percent. Over four years, you might expect an 8 or 10 percent hike. However, here are 20 markets where the average rent over the past four years has increased from 18 to 38 percent. A lot of them are the usual suspects, markets in California and Florida that periodically have booms and busts, but the Northwest, Colorado, Texas and Ten- nessee are also in the mix. Don't expect similar results the next four years, but this list shows what's possible. I
These markets have some things in common:
I don't think home prices will crash in these markets anytime soon, but if I were an investor I'd think more about selling during the next couple of years than about buying. In the meantime, Nashville looks like the best bet of the bunch. •
3,299,521
3%
1.9%
8%
$487
19%
21%
San Diego - Carlsbad, CA
768,918
6%
1.8%
8%
$306
22%
20%
North Port - Bradenton - Sarasota, FL
• In most, the population grew by much more than the average two per- cent national rate; and the job growth
454,846
6%
1.0%
14%
$241
12%
19%
Port St. Lucie - Fort Pierce, FL
444,769
2%
2.1%
5%
$488
16%
19%
Santa Maria - Santa Barbara
rate was high (except in Florida where retirees drive demand).
319,372
4%
2.0%
9%
$498
23%
19%
Boulder, CO
IngoWinzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employ- ment and population. Winzer, who has
701,982
9%
0.4%
8%
$260
17%
19%
Cape Coral - Fort Myers, FL
• Home prices also increased sharply, which creates a potential problem for the future. In many of these markets home prices are now more than 20 percent above the "income" price, they're getting into boom and bust territory.
1,422,789
5%
0.8%
9%
$354
21%
18%
West Palm Beach - Boca Raton, FL
analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com.
3,169,776
2%
1.9%
6%
$631
32%
18%
Anaheim - Santa Ana, CA
1,830,345
6%
2.4%
10%
$283
6%
18%
Nashville - Davidson, TN
Source :: Local Market Monitor, 2018
94 | think realty magazine :: july 2018
thinkrealty . com | 95
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