demographics
ONE MILLION MORE...OR MORE?
Study and work permits played a major role in Canada's record-setting population growth of 2022. In 2023, it's (even) more of the same.
Temporary immigration permits—that is temporary foreign workers, international students, and the international mobility program—account for a significant proportion of the inflow of people into Canada. And while many ultimately leave the country, others end up staying on permanent resident permits (which we will explore in the next section). Additionally, they account for a significant share of Canada’s population at any given time. Though the specific number of temporary permit holders currently in Canada is being debated at the moment, we’ll leave that for now, and instead focus on the flow of temporary residents into Canada and its current trajectory. Last year, Canada issued a record high number of temporary permits at 1.19 million. That’s a whopping 34% increase over the prior year, which was previously the all-time high. So far in 2023 Canada is on pace to issue even more, with 994,000 permits recorded through the first seven months.
Historically, around half of all temporary permits are for international students. So far this year, that hasn’t been the case, with just one-third of all temporary permits going to students to-date. That doesn't indicate a change in the distribution of permits, but rather follows typical seasonality. The bulk of study permits get issued in August and September, when school starts. This suggests that the pace of temporary permits is going to actually accelerate over the next two months, as more students arrive in time for the next school year. Permits for temporary foreign workers and the international mobility program, on the other hand, are closing in on their 2022 totals just past the midway point of the year. Combine this with the increasing number of new permanent residents and it looks like Canada’s net international migration in 2023 is on pace to exceed its pace of one million additions from 2022.
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