housing
A MARKET ON THE MEND The benchmark condo price—our preferred metric for how home prices are changing over time—peaked in British Columbia in May 2022, at $677,000, shortly after the Bank of Canada began its rate-hiking program. From there, it declined in each month through to the end of the year bottoming out at $612,500. Since then, and in spite of continued rising rates, condo prices have been on the rise, increasing in each month from January through July 2023 before declining marginally to $661,100 in August. That represents a return to 98% of the previous peak value—astonishing considering where interest rates are.
Looking at the path ahead for condo prices in this province, and with the effects of the June and July interest rate increases just starting to have their impact, we expect condo prices to soften a bit in the second half of the year. As a reflection of both the scale of BC's unmet housing demand and the recent rate hold by the Bank of Canada (might there be more of that to come?), our model charts a path for the province's benchmark condo price achieving its previous peak value by February 2024. Should that come to pass, expect townhome and detached home prices to follow the lead of the condo market.
CHARTING A COURSE BACK TO PEAK
1.04
to peak MONTHS
1.02
to peak MONTHS
to peak MONTHS
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.86
0.87
0.84
0
2 4 6 8
10
12 14 16 MONTHS FROM PREVIOUS PEAK
18 20 22 24
26 28 30
32 34
MAY YTD
SOURCE: CREA DATA: BENCHMARK CONDO PRICES INDEXED TO CYCLE PEAK, MONTHLY, BRITISH COLUMBIA
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