Global Stock Market Performance of Selected Indexes (Sources: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance)
Country
Index
2023 24.23 21.50
2024 23.31 -12.44 19.50
1st Qtr. 2025
YTD 4/18
United States
S&P 500
-4.59
-10.18
Mexico Canada
Morningstar Mexico PR Morningstar Canada PR
5.11 0.99 5.01
6.63
8.68 3.78
-1.89
United Kingdom
FTSE 100
5.69
1.26 6.51
Germany
DAX
20.31 14.61 28.24
18.85 -1.52 19.22
11.32
France Japan
Morningstar France PR
5.52
-0.69
Nikkei 225
-10.72
-12.94
Australia
Morningstar Australia PR
8.18
7.23
-3.91 -0.10
-4.26
China -2.24 Prior to 2025, four major market downturns occurred this century, defined as the S&P 500 dropping at least 25%. The chart below shows the peak month for the S&P 500 before the downturn, the month in which the trough occurred, and the number of months it took for the market to rebound to its prior peak. SSE Composite -3.70 12.67
U.S. Stock Market (S&P 500) Declines since 2000
Peak
Bottom
Decline in S&P 500 Number of Months for Market to Rebound to Prior Peak
Sept. 2000 Oct. 2007 Feb. 2020 Jan. 2022
July 2002
-49% -58% -35% -28%
80 (May 2007) 66 (April 2013) 6 (August 2020)
March 2009 March 2020
Oct. 2022 24 (January 2024) The cause of the market decline in 2025 is much different than the causes of earlier market declines this century. There was no pandemic, financial crisis, dot.com crash, supply chain problem, or expected recession resulting from increasing interest rates. The market decline in 2025 resulted from U.S. tariff policies, the result which may be a fundamental change in the American economy and financial markets, as international trade, relations, and investments may be forever changed. The Bond Market Another side effect of the 2025 tariffs was the impact on Treasury bonds and international investing. The chart below shows the change in short-term and long-term interest rates between April 4 and April 11 for selected Treasury securities at different maturities. In one week, the yields on 5, 10, 20, and 30-year Treasuries each increased by at least 40 basis points. The dramatic jump in yields reflected the volatility in the bond market, as foreign investors bailed from U.S. Treasuries. Bond prices declined and consequently long-term bond yields increased. In addition, the declining demand for U.S. Treasuries weakened the dollar relative to foreign currencies. Uncertainty regarding future trade and relations with the United States prompted foreign investors to pull-back their investments.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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