Yield on Selected Treasury Securities by Maturity (Source: U.S. Department of Treasury)
Date
1 Mo 4.36 4.37 0.01
2 Yr 3.68 3.96 0.28
5 Yr 3.72 4.15 0.43
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
04/04/2025 04/11/2025
4.01 4.48 0.47
4.44 4.91 0.47
4.41 4.85
Increase 0.44 The increase in long-term yields reflected the concern that international investors will no longer have a desire to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, which typically are seen as a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty. This would impact U.S. government financing through higher borrowing costs on U.S. debt. The increased interest rates would also negatively impact business and consumer borrowing. Foreign investors have played an important role in financing U.S. government debt. At the beginning of 2025, foreign investors held $8.5 trillion of Treasury securities, with Japan, China, and United Kingdom holding 12.6%, 8.9%, and 8.7%, respectively. Any drop in foreign investment which contributes to a weakened dollar, combined with tariffs, will only exacerbate inflationary expectations. The Labor Market Job gains continued in the first quarter of 2025; however, an important caveat is that the job market did not yet fully reflect newly implemented tariffs and DOGE government job cuts. Job gains occurred in March for the 51st consecutive month. The last time job losses occurred was December 2020. The table below shows monthly job changes since January 2020. One Month Net Change in Employment (in thousands) January 2020 – March 2025 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 236 261 -1397 -20471 2616 4631 1584 1564 951 691 270 -183 2021 365 509 824 365 421 796 931 487 466 857 637 575 2022 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126 2023 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269 2024 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323 2025 111 117(P) 228(P) P = preliminary The unemployment rate was a relatively low 4.2% in March; however, the rate has increased in 2025, up from 4.0% in January. Since February 2023, real wages have increased with wage growth exceeding inflation. The 3-month moving average of median hourly wage growth was 4.3% in March 2025, down from 4.7% in September 2024 but up slightly from December’s 4.2%. Although job gains continued, the number of unemployed persons per job opening increased in 2025. The chart below shows the number of unemployed persons per job opening since January 2010. In February 2025, for the first time since March 2021, the rate exceeded 1.0, meaning that there was more than one unemployed person for every job opening.
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2025
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