ECONOMIC Indicators
Scott Wallace, Ph.D. Director and Editor, CBEI; Professor of Economics, Sentry School of Business and Economics Michael Brierton Senior Research Assistant, CBEI
Calm Before the Storm? The economic indicators for Quarter 1 of 2025 show an economy at both the national and local levels continuing to grow albeit at a slower pace than the recent past. The 0.3% quarterly decline in Real GDP (see Table 4) can be attributed to a significant increase in imports as businesses stock up before the imposition of tariffs. The inflation rate has continued to decline, closer to the 2% goal set by the Federal Reserve. Unemployment rates remain at low levels though there are signs of a softening labor market. Uncertainty regarding the nature and size of future tariffs will likely have a greater impact on economic indicators in future months and quarters.
National Economic Statistics Table 1 Key Economic Indicators (First Quarter 2025) 2025 First Quarter
% ∆ Yr. Ago 4.73% 2.05% 1.30%
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions)
$29,977.60 $23,526.10
Industrial Production (2017 = 100)
103.9
Description: • Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using current prices. • Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using prices from a base year (2017) to adjust for inflation. • Industrial Production Index: Measures real output (as a percentage of actual output in 2017) produced in the United States in manufacturing, mining, and electric & gas utilities. Analysis: • The 2.05% year over year growth in Real Gross Domestic Product shows a national economy growing but at a slower pace. • The Industrial Production Index is one of the oldest, continuous economic indicators and is an indicator of manufacturing performance. It gauges the value of output produced as a percentage of output in 2017. The index indicates modest growth in manufacturing output over the last year.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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