Table 4 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Line Percent Change at an Annual Rate 2023 Q3 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 1 Gross Domestic Product Percentage Points at Annual Rates 4.9 1.6 3.0 3.1 2.4 -0.3 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.69 1.30 1.90 2.48 2.70 1.21 3 Goods 1.08 -0.25 0.63 1.18 1.30 0.11 4 Durable Goods 0.60 -0.13 0.40 0.54 0.87 -0.26 5 Nondurable Goods 0.48 -0.12 0.23 0.63 0.42 0.37 6 Services 1.62 1.55 1.27 1.31 1.41 1.10 7 Gross Private Domestic Investments 1.47 0.64 1.47 0.16 -1.03 3.60 8 Fixed Investment 0.15 1.14 0.42 0.38 -0.20 1.34 9 Nonresidential 0.00 0.61 0.53 0.55 -0.41 1.29 10 Structures 0.05 0.20 0.01 -0.16 0.09 0.01 11 Equipment -0.19 0.02 0.49 0.54 -0.47 1.06 12 Intellectual Property Products 0.14 0.40 0.04 0.17 -0.03 0.22 13 Residential 0.15 0.53 -0.11 -0.18 0.22 0.05 14 Change in Private Inventories 1.32 -0.49 1.05 -0.22 -0.84 2.25 15 Net Exports of Goods and Services -0.08 -0.61 -0.90 -0.43 0.26 -4.83 16 Exports 0.68 0.21 0.12 1.01 -0.01 0.19 17 Goods 0.54 -0.02 0.07 0.70 -0.33 0.22 18 Services 0.14 0.23 0.05 0.31 0.32 -0.03 19 Imports -0.75 -0.82 -1.01 -1.44 0.27 -5.03 20 Goods -0.63 -0.69 -0.90 -1.14 0.57 -4.79 21 Services -0.12 -0.13 -0.12 -0.29 -0.30 -0.24 22 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investments 0.79 0.30 0.52 0.86 0.52 -0.25 23 Federal 0.39 -0.02 0.27 0.55 0.25 -0.33 24 National Defense 0.28 -0.09 0.23 0.48 0.18 -0.31 25 Nondefense 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.03 26 State and Local 0.40 0.32 0.25 0.31 0.27 0.08 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Description: • The above table decomposes percent changes in Real GDP into its components (consumption, investment, government, and net exports) and more specific subcomponents. Analysis: • The 0.3% decline in Real Gross Domestic Product compared to Q4 2024 was the largest drop since Q1 2022. • The decline can largely be attributed to a significant increase in imports, which are subtracted from Real GDP to avoid double counting. • The negative contribution of net exports to Real GDP growth combined with significant increases in the “change in private inventories” tell a story of firms increasing their stockpiles before tariffs are implemented.
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2025
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