PERCENT CHANGE SINCE BOTTOM
250%
198%
186%
200%
163%
150%
108%
107%
100%
100%
100%
50%
0%
Las Vegas- Henderson- Paradise, Nevada
San Diego- Carlsbad, California
Los Angeles- Long Beach-
San Franciso- Oakland- Hayward, California
Seattle- Tacoma- Bellevue, Washington
San Jose- Sunnyvale- Santa Clara, California
Boise City, Idaho
Anaheim, California
fornia; and Seattle. But in all five of these markets, the rate of home price appreci- ation in November 2018 slowed compared to a year ago, a possible sign of a cooldown. Housing News Report asked local experts and investors from each of these mar- kets whether they see signs of a potential cooling off period for local home prices in the near future or if
they expect the hot housing market to continue.
People are not depending on refinancing to pay their mortgage like they were a decade ago. The housing market is behaving the way it should behave and we all should be happy for that.”
MARKET SPOTLIGHT
Is the West In For Another Wild Ride?
STILL BOOMING IN BOISE Topping the Forbes list of “Ameri- ca’s Fastest Growing Cities 2018,” the Boise City metro area of Idaho known as the “Treasure Valley” has contin- ued to see home sales prices trending upwards since January 2012.
BY JOEL CONE TAMER TRENDS EMERGING IN WILD WEST HOUSING MARKETS
CHRIS THORNBERG
R eal estate can be a wild roller coaster ride over time. However, by its nature, real estate is local. So depending on location, some markets can experience trends resulting in a more volatile ride than other parts of the country. This is particularly true in parts of the Western states, where home sales prices took a nosedive when the Great Recession hit in 2007 be- fore returning to some normalcy in 2012, beginning yet another steady climb year-over-year since then. “We had a huge spike in inven- tory right into the teeth of the collapse,” noted Chris Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Eco- nomics. “I would argue that the
market has been behaving quite reasonably. There are no spikes now in inventories, which is a mark of a downturn. The months’ supply is still tight at the national level.” Unlike the last downturn, there are no subprime loans, and mort- gage lenders have improved their lending standards. Plus, there are not so many desperate sellers or people who find themselves underwater with their mortgage," Thornberg added. Because indicators that led to the Great Recession are not in play this time around, Thornberg does not believe another recession is on the horizon anytime soon. “If you don’t have a why then you
don’t talk about when,” said Thorn- berg, who is also Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting. “People are not depending on refi- nancing to pay their mortgage like they were a decade ago. The hous- ing market is behaving the way it should behave and we all should be happy for that.” Analysis of median home sales data from ATTOM Data Solutions revealed five western markets that stand out when it came to steep upward climbs in median home prices since the bottom of home prices in 2012: Boise, Idaho; Las Vegas, Nevada; coastal Northern California; coastal Southern Cali-
NOV 2018 VS NOV 2017 HOME PRICE APPRECIATION
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
12%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
0.9%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
4.5%
2.4%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
6.0%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Boise City, ID
11.7%
3.9%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0%
2.0%
22 think realty housing news report
march 2019 23
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