six straight months of sliding sales
Greater Victoria’s housing market had its sixth consecutive month of declining sales counts in November, as buyers continue to sit on the sidelines in response to high interest rates. And with December typically marking the low water mark for transactions in the year, a seventh straight month of sliding sales is likely.
months-of-inventory (MOI) metric sitting at 5.8 (an MOI of less than 5 reflects conditions more favourable to sellers; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market). With the finish line to 2023 in sight, expect a similar combination of high interest rates (what we call “macro-ality”) and the more typical seasonality to play out again in December. Indeed, sales, new listings, and inventory—which all normally experience a steep drop-off between November and December—will undoubtedly sag again this year to close out 2023, with sales and new listings diverging somewhat. This will support inventory at the margin—good news, especially, for anyone who’s on the look out for their first home.
As we noted in the last edition of the rennie review, high interest rates have quelled buying activity in Greater Victoria’s housing market of late. When coupled with typical seasonal undulations that, on their own, yield declining housing market activity towards the end of each year, the result is sales counts that have continued to decline into November and will also do so into December. There were just 349 MLS transactions in Greater Victoria last month, which was an 8% decline from October and, as noted, the sixth consecutive monthly drop. And while this may have been less than the typical October-to-November decrease (of 16%), last month’s sales were still 3% below those of November 2022 and 35% less than the past-decade average for the month.
total of 781 was down 19% from October—generally in line with the typical month-to-month decline of 21%. Despite the slowdown, new listings remained elevated compared to both one year ago (14% higher) and the past- decade November average (15% higher). The result of below-average sales activity and above-average new listings was inventory that was 29% higher than in November 2022 and 20% higher than the long-run average for the month. And while November’s 2,041 total listings were down by 5% between October and November, this compared to the more typical 10% contraction. These supply and demand dynamics led to a second consecutive month of overall balanced in Greater Victoria’s housing market (after more than three years of being a sellers’ market), with November’s
On the new listings front, November’s
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