MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective Overall, the October position report presents a favorable outlook. Although results were slightly below forecasts, they were strong enough to support prices. Sellers are becoming more comfortable as the crop is delivered and prices show an upward trend. Likewise, buyers are adjusting to firmer pricing and gaining confidence that they can purchase without fear of an immediate price drop. Destination inventories remain tight, with incoming products moving directly to market rather than to storage, signaling strong demand that should continue to support prices into the new year. With the harvest now complete, the industry is closely monitoring receipts to assess the final crop size. Many believe the 2024 crop may fall short of the forecasted 2.8 billion pounds. While it’s still too early for a definitive assessment, a clearer picture should emerge by January. Additionally, many in the industry are speculating on the impact of a potential President Trump victory on tariffs and future demand. COMMITMENTS Total commitments have improved to 673.7 million pounds, slightly below last year’s level. However, export commitments are 13% higher than last year, totaling 458.5 million pounds. This performance positions the industry well for strong shipments over the next two months as sellers work to fulfill orders. Uncommitted inventories now total 997 million pounds, up 32% from last year due to an earlier harvest. Exports continue to drive new sales, reaching 264.7 million pounds, a 6% increase over last year. Assuming a 2.8-billion-pound crop, current shipments and commitments account for 41% of total supply, compared to 42% last year. CROP This year’s harvest is essentially complete, with crop receipts totaling 1.85 billion pounds. By January, the industry is expected to have a clearer picture of the final crop size. Due to lower moisture levels this year, almonds moved quickly through the huller and sheller, with many facilities having already completed their work for the season. Growers are now shifting their focus to post-harvest orchard activities. Rainfall over the next two months will be crucial for replenishing orchard soils and storing water for the upcoming growing season.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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ALMOND FACTS
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