THE HOME BUILDER
Page Four
December 2022
Dallas housing market will surge in 2024, says NAHB Economist Rob Dietz at Dallas BA State of the Industry Summit
Upcoming Classes: Dec. Presented by
Energy Code Update – The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Building a Better House Series - Dec. 6 Expert James Rodriguez of Fox Energy Specialists decodes what to ex- pect in the upcoming IECC updates and when the new regulations take charge. The published version of the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) was released early in 2021 and has now been under review by many municipalities across the metroplex. This edition of the IECC has many significant changes when compared to previous editions currently enforced across the State of Texas (i.e., 2015, 2018 IECC). Even if adopted with lo- cal amendments, builders will still need to plan for substantial impacts to their current energy packages. Topics to be covered include: n 45L Tax Reduction; n Climate Zone Changes affect - ing DFW; n Mandatory Requirements of the 2021 IECC; n Building Envelope Changes; n Mechanical System Changes; n Prescriptive Path; n Performance Path; n ERI Path; n State Approved Alternative Paths (i.e., HB 3215, ENERGY STAR); and n North Texas Local Amend- ments. Time: 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. Cost: $35 Member/$55 Non-Member In-Person Only Register for Energy Code Update. Building a Better House Series partners are DuPont, Samsung and Texas Builders Resource Group. Tools & Technology: Managing a Bet- ter Business Series - Dec. 7 Learn which tools and technology builder members use to maximize their profits and streamline their timelines in a 3-hour boot camp with real-life applications and demonstrations. Instructor panelists Joshua Cor- rea, Divino, Homes; John Todd, Elite Remodeling; Tim Lansford, Luxury Homes of Texas; Diane Hatfield, Alair Homes, and Donny Mack, Beaver Builders, will discuss tools they use to
manage their own businesses. Other topics will include:
worst in sectors that are male-dominated — construction, transportation, energy, the military, commercial airline pilots. It’s a call that we have to diversify the workforce. Construction is only 10 per- cent women. We need to bring more in, but this is a real challenge in terms of our country’s labor markets.”
n CRM solutions n Change orders n How panelists manage their n What apps are vital to them? n Ghant charts n Budgeting tools n Strategies / Systems/ Processes n Tools used to save time/ money/ Time: 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. Cost: $35 Member/$55 Non-Member In-Person and Virtual Options Register for Tools & Technology. 2021-2023 TAB Contracts Updates Class The Bush Rudnicki Shelton Law Firm will offer guidance on the updates to the 2021-2023 Texas Association of Builders contracts package. The 2021-2023 contracts include immense changes which reflect the outcome of the last legislative session. In 2021 Significant modifications sales pipeline improve client satisfaction n Lead times tips have been made to Disclosure Provi- sions, Materials Escalation Clause, Termination by Builder Procedures, Arbitration Provisions, Insurance Re- quirements, Definition of Construction Costs among others. Updates include: n NEW Cost-Plus on Builder’s Lot Construction Contract (document 3.2); n NEW Pricing Terms and Non- Solicitation Addenda (documents 8.22 and 8.23); and n NEW Injury Incident Reporting Form (document 8.6) Class information is specific to builders. Builder non-members may attend; however, they must be a mem- ber to purchase the contracts package through the Texas Association of Builders. Time: 10 a.m. – 12 p.m. Cost: $35 Member/$55 Non-Member In-Person Only ADVANCED REGISTRATION REQUIRED FOR THE CONTRACTS CLASS.
EDITOR’S NOTE: THIS ARTICLE IS PUBLISHED WITH PERMISSION FROM CANDY’S DIRT. By April Towery The country is already in the midst of a “mild recession,” but local job growth is outstanding and inflation has peaked, an economist told Dallas build- ers last week. Dr. Rob Dietz gave an economic outlook at the Dallas BA’s State of the Industry event, presented Nov. 10 in partnership with Hotchkiss Insurance Agency. Program partner was West Fraser. National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Rob Dietz emphasized that next year is going to be difficult, but 2024 will be a year of housing rebound and stabilization of home prices. The U.S. economy is now expe- riencing a labor shortage that began in the construction industry — so local builders already have dealt with and adjusted to the brunt of the declining economy, he said. Dietz joined expert panelists in- cluding NAHB Vice President for Government Affairs Lake Coulson and Texas Association of Builders Executive Vice President Scott Norman for the discussion at the Dallas Builders As- sociation State of the Industry summit. Dallas BA Executive Officer Phil Crone acknowledged that what’s hap- pening across the nation affects the Dallas-Fort Worth market. “We’ve got a lot of things working in our favor with the strength of the mar- ket here in Texas and specifically here in this region, but regardless of that, the things that are happening nationally will [impact] and have impacted this area,” Crone said. Dallas Housing Market Numbers Dallas has solid job growth num- bers, the best Dietz has seen all year, the economist said. “The economies that did better during COVID in terms of good policy- making have benefited in terms of jobs,” Dietz said. “The Dallas numbers are just absolutely outstanding.” The labor force participation rate for men was 86 percent prior to World War II, but the nation has since expe- rienced decades of failures in policy, social, and educational arenas, Dietz added. “The result is this ongoing decline such that we’re now down to a 66 percent labor force participation rate. We are failing our nation’s boys and it’s clear in this data,” he said. “It’s no mystery why the labor shortage is the
April Towery Candy’s Dirt
From left, Scott Norman, TAB executive director; Dr. Rob Dietz, NAHB chief economist and senior vice president of economics and housing pol - icy; Dallas BA President John Porizek of M/I Homes; and Lake Coulson, NAHB vice president of government affairs
Dr. Rob Dietz gives an economic update to the 200 Dallas BA members in attendance at the Nov. 10 State of the Industry Summit. percent in 2024, Dietz predicted. “Markets with the best population
Housing affordability continues to decline, but that’s no surprise to Dallas builders. “Communities that have the abil- ity to have housing are going to be the ones that grow the fastest in this coming downturn,” Dietz said. “That’s a message that’s been well-received in the South. In the Northeast, they don’t get it yet. They’re losing population to cover that. There are high regulatory costs and an inability to have housing thrive. There’s an interesting geographic effect that’s occurring in the U.S. economy, particularly as you come out of COVID.” Prevailing rents are 15 to 20 per- cent higher than they were a year ago, Dietz explained. Rents are higher be- cause there isn’t enough housing stock. “Single-family construction is de- clining for the first time this year since 2011,” he said. “We think multifamily will decline next year. It continues to be strong. We think remodeling will perform the best during this cyclical downturn due to some factors connected to the fact that people are going to move with less frequency.” Home prices will fall about 10
growth are going to see better condi- tions,” he said. “Nationwide only 43 percent of homes are affordable. In the Dallas area, it’s 32 percent. The good news for markets like Dallas is the popu- lation growth rates are outstanding.” Dietz’s research is posted at the NAHB’s Eye on Housing site. Recession Fears Interest rates surged early this year, but the recession Dietz predicts will not be a repeat of 2007. The only reason academics haven’t called it a recession yet is that jobs are still being added. “The academics who make the official call of this want to see a rising unemployment rate,” Dietz said. “My response to that is, ‘Just wait. It’s com- ing.’ It’s going to be lagged because we’re still adding jobs from having lost jobs during the COVID recession.” Inflation is the reason the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, the economist explained. The Fed can’t address those chal- lenges; that’s a supply-side matter, the economist explained.
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