Policy & Compliance
imminently. The heads of terms (contract rules) are currently being consulted on, with the consultation closing on 3 April 2026. While the SAF Mandate creates the demand, the RCM ensures supply by guaranteeing producers a stable price for their fuel, regardless of market conditions. This is achieved through the agreement of a guaranteed strike price within a private contract between the fuel producer and a government-backed counterparty. If the market price is lower than the strike price, the government pays the producer the difference, protecting the producer from a price collapse in the market. Correspondingly, if the market price is higher than the strike price, the producer would pay the excess back to the counterparty, avoiding excessive profit taking. The RCM is intended to place greater emphasis on non-HEFA technologies, with the aim of stimulating innovation, reducing investment risk, and limiting competition for feedstocks used in other industries. Second-generation SAF pathways may also deliver greater carbon savings compared with conventional SAF options. RCM contracts The first RCM contracts are expected to be awarded in 2027, which should help project developers reach final investment decisions. However, even if these decisions are made in 2027, SAF facilities typically require more than three years to construct. As a result, the RCM is unlikely to significantly increase domestic SAF supply in the short term. Overall, 2025 can be seen as a milestone year for the Mandate. Nevertheless, substantial progress will be required in 2026 and beyond to keep pace with the demand trajectory set by the Mandate. Rapid implementation of the RCM, alongside prioritisation of SAF plant development, will be essential if the UK is to scale up domestic production and meet its longer-term Mandate targets. *The information provided is based on the provisional data released by the DfT on 12 February 2026. The final data set is due to be published in late 2026.
A fi nal quarter surge saw the UK exceed its SAF mandate target for 2025 – but substantial progress will have to be made if the industry is to hit its longer-term targets The SAF surge: UK beats 2025 mandate targets
T he decarbonisation of the UK aviation sector has reached a notable milestone with the recent publication of the 2025 SAF Mandate (the Mandate) results. Earlier projections in late 2025 suggested that the UK was in danger of falling short of its mandate, with supply figures hovering around 1.63%. However, provisional data released by the Department for Transport (DfT) on 12 February paints a more optimistic picture. Due to a surge in supply during the final quarter of 2025, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) accounted for 2.36% of all jet fuel supplied in the UK, meaning that the UK exceeded the Mandate’s target of 2%.* Tangible shift While the 2.36% figure may appear modest in the context of total jet fuel consumption, it represents a tangible shift in the aviation sector, conveying a clear direction of travel in decarbonising aviation (including air freight). A significant factor for the 2025 Q4 spike is likely to have been producers ramping up supply to avoid heavy non-compliance costs. Under the Mandate, fuel suppliers who do not supply the
mandated amount of fuel, must utilise the buy-out mechanism, currently set at £4.70 per litre. The attention now shifts to meeting the 2026 target of supplying SAF at 3.6% of total UK jet fuel consumption. While this remains a fraction of overall fuel use, the jump from the 2% 2025 target represents a massive 80% year-on-year increase in the volume of SAF supply. The challenge of meeting the 3.6% target is compounded by competition for limited feedstocks used in the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. This is particularly relevant for the road freight sector, as SAF and renewable diesel (HVO) rely on the same HEFA materials. Furthermore, the industry is heavily reliant on global supply chains for these materials, leaving it vulnerable to the increased volatility of international trade. In this environment, the Revenue Certainty Mechanism (RCM) is poised to become the UK’s pivotal tool for meeting the Mandate’s escalating targets: 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040. The RCM is being established via the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill, which is due to receive Royal Assent (the final sign-off to become law)
“ Rapid implement- ation of the RCM, alongside prioritisation of SAF plant develop - ment, will be essential if the UK is to scale up domestic production and meet its longer-term Mandate targets
28 | April 2026
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