Gaming revenue data from the NIGC for 2019 is not yet available and the NIGC does not publish revenue data for ancillary facilities in the same manner. Based upon our analysis of the industry prior to the pandemic, we have estimated gaming revenue at Indian casinos in 2019 to have equaled $35.05 billion dollars and total revenue, including ancillary facilities to have equaled $41.2 billion. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in gaming revenue of 34.25 percent for 2020 and a decline in ancillary revenue at Indian casinos of 38.85 percent, for an overall decline in total revenue at Indian casinos for 2020 of approximately 34.9 percent. For 2021, we forecast an increase in gaming revenue of 18.6 percent and an increase in total revenue of 18.4 percent as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 22 to 23 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, substantial recovery is forecast to continue, with gaming revenue up 22.1 percent and total revenue up 22.0 percent from 2021. While this still leaves industry revenue between four and six percent below estimated 2019 levels, it will effectively represent full recovery by the end of 2022. Revenue levels in 2023 are expected to approximate pre- pandemic levels and surpass them on a month-to-month comparison basis by the end of the year. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Gaming revenue data for 2017 and 2018 are taken from NIGC statistics. All other figures are estimates and forecasts by KlasRobinson. Tourism, Lodging & Other Leisure Industries While some tribes have timber, mining, extraction or sufficient land mass for major agriculture, next to gaming, the most important industry sector for most tribes is tourism and other leisure industries. Both nationally and internationally, tribal lands and peoples are known for their fascinating cultures and histories, beautiful vistas and unique attractions. Since long before gaming and even after for tribes without major casinos or those whose casinos can only provide modest enhancements to economic activity, other tourist-oriented businesses have provided critical employment, hard currency and educational opportunities to tell their story and maintain their language and arts. The tourism and leisure sector as a whole has been hit even more heavily than its gaming subcomponent, with the same closures and travel restrictions, but with longer lead times likely for reopening and an inability to capitalize on high dollar customers in the same way as casinos. There are exceptions for open natural areas where people can easily space themselves and visit under the guise of exercise and fresh air. However, the money-making facets of such attractions have always been the restaurants, gift shops, lodging, guided activities and related ancillary amenities that cannot be operated in the same way as before, or even at all for the time being.
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