There is much greater variance in the restrictions being placed on tourism and leisure businesses outside of reservations depending upon the geographic location and governing political environment. In the near term, this will give advantages to tourism in those areas removing restrictions rapidly in terms of operating capacity. However, there is a clear link between tourism and business travel with the initial spread of the pandemic within and beyond China, Europe and the United States. It would be unreasonable to expect that the same process will not occur again. As it does, even if certain areas refuse to tighten restrictions, a reputation as a hot spot and declines in staffing and local demand due to illness will be enough to accomplish much the same result. While tribes have the opportunity to chart a different course than their surrounding areas, there are practical limits to how much variation can occur and no way to fully avoid the impacts of the decisions made by non-tribal businesses and governments. The international component of tourism will be the last component to recover due to continued border restrictions and perceptions of risk. Even when and where travel is allowed, the rules on quarantining will need to be consistent and reciprocal to allow the free flow of international tourism demand. This is likely to take much longer than the reopening and recovery of domestic travel. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in tribal tourism and leisure industry revenue other than casinos of 38.5 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal tourism and leisure revenue other than from casinos of 22.5 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry nearly 25 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, substantial recovery is forecast to continue, with revenue up 27.6 percent from 2021. While this still leaves industry revenue nearly four percent below estimated 2019 levels, it will effectively represent full recovery by the end of 2022. Revenue levels in 2023 are expected to approximate pre-pandemic levels and surpass them on a month-to-month comparison basis by the end of the year. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting According to the 2017 version of the Census of Agriculture, which is conducted every five years, the total market value of all products sold by AIAN producers equaled $3.5 billion, as reported by the University of Arkansas. The number of AIAN- owned farms increased by seven percent from 2012. The total value of livestock, poultry and related products were up 15 percent over the five-year period, with the value of crops, and greenhouse/nursery products up 1.8 percent. Although farming, as well as forestry and hunting/fishing which are also part of the agricultural sector, is an important source of income to tribal economies and individual members throughout Indian country, a majority of AIAN producers, 58 percent, are located in just three states, Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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