The impacts of the pandemic and mitigation efforts on agriculture have been unique due to the structure of the industry itself. While the romanticized versions of the family farm or ranch still exist, the vast majority of the industry is dominated by factory farming and even more heavily dominated by large industrial processors and distributors. At the industrial level, production, processing and distribution have become highly consolidated and specialized, with output specifically tailored to different end users. Some growers, processors and distributors cater primarily or even solely to the foodservice industry. Their products are grown and packaged to meet the needs of that sector. Others are targeted specifically toward the grocery and other off-sale markets, which have very different grading and packaging requirements. For example, the foodservice industry buys liquid egg product in bulk so they do not literally have to break some eggs to make their omelets. Grocers need eggs packaged in cartons and graded. With producers, processors and distributors focused only on one or the other, the massive shift from dining-out to dining-in left some with nowhere to sell their product and others overwhelmed with demand. The same has happened with dairy/cheese, potatoes and many other products. The result is the disturbing juxtaposition of empty grocery shelves on one hand with farmers discarding raw milk, euthanizing animals and experiencing crushing losses even though the same number of people still need to eat. The imbalances go beyond a lack of production and distribution flexibility. The actual eating and personal habits of people when they are out to dinner, in the office or traveling vary considerably from their habits at home. This has added to the imbalances in the system. Direct problems caused by closures of processors due to viral spikes have been well publicized. When processing is heavily concentrated in a limited number of very large facilities, the effects of a single closure a magnified. While this has long been a factor in gas prices, it is a new experience for agriculture. Eventually, the consumption patterns will shift back as the foodservice industry is allowed to reopen. However, it will be a long time before foodservice establishments have anywhere near the need for their specialized forms of products that they had in the past. First due to ongoing restrictions and later due to lingering changes in customer habits, the shift in balance between at home and away from home food and beverage consumption will take much longer to approximate pre-pandemic patterns than the general economic recovery. In answer to the disruptions seen so far and the lingering effects that are expected, all facets of the agricultural industry are likely to realign their output and target markets to at least some degree. While catering to a wider variety of customers, markets and uses is less efficient and correspondingly less profitable, it is far more robust and flexible. We expect the lessons being learned in the current crisis to carry a lasting effect. We do not expect a complete overhaul of the system and abandonment of the prior specialization, but substantive changes and diversification at the corporate level are likely.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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