Over the past ten years, construction has shown the greatest average compound annual growth of any sector, fueled by both private and public demand. On the private side, growth in demand for multi-family housing, office space, travel and leisure industry projects, and supporting development for other industry sectors has generated significant activity. On the public side, transportation infrastructure, arenas and stadiums, new government buildings and even civic beautification and cultural development have kept many construction workers busy for years at a time. Even new retail construction as occurred despite problems with brick and mortar retail. One example is the impact of Indian gaming on construction. According to the recent economic impact study of Indian gaming by Dupris Consulting Group for the National Indian Gaming Association, the Indian gaming industry spent over $4.1 billion on capital projects in 2019 alone. Our own prior analysis, published in “Indian Gaming Magazine” in March of 2019 anticipated $7.0 billion in new construction at Indian gaming facilities from 2019 through 2021, a prediction that was being fulfilled until the COVID-19 crash. As large as these numbers are, they are but a small piece of a sector that totaled nearly $1.7 trillion in 2019, up $53.5 billion from the year before according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The success of the construction sector is particularly important to the economic well-being of many individual tribal members. While there are several large construction businesses owned by tribes and employing many people, the construction sector is among the most significant sectors for non-employer establishments, that is, individual contractors, sole proprietors and master technicians and craftsmen. Within Indian country, only the catchall sector “other services,” has more non-employer establishments than the construction sector and only “F.I.R.E.” (finance/insurance/real estate) approaches the construction sector in terms of percentage of total sector jobs filled by non-employer establishments. Thus, reverses in the construction sector have a particular impact on many individual tribal members. The pandemic and associated mitigation efforts are already having an impact on the sector. Any project that was not already in the ground is most likely on hold, with many likely to be cancelled. Even some that are already in construction may be suspended or at best shelled out and then left unfurnished and unopened until conditions change. Projects put on hold that do not end up being cancelled outright will most likely be redesigned and value engineered to reduce costs and fit new operating models and needs. As the projects already too far along to warrant suspension or cancellation are completed, a process that in some cases could last well into next year, there will be an even greater impact on construction activity.
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