In general terms, subsectors and manufacturers such as textiles, petroleum and chemical products (although not cleaners), motor vehicles (although possibly not RV’s), other transportation equipment, some paper products, wood products and some other metal products and appliance operations will see more severe and longer lasting downturns. Conversely, food processors (for at home consumption), sanitation products, PPE manufacturers, computer and electronics manufacturers, home recreational equipment manufacturers, sporting goods catering to personal rather than team sports, and manufacturers of other specialty personal care products used in the home will see less severe and shorter downturns or even surges in demand that eventually move back toward more typical levels. Manufacturers catering primarily to government contracts will likely see periodic short-term surges in demand from stimulus and mitigation efforts within a broader and longer context of reduced demand due to government cutbacks once the immediate crisis has passed. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in tribal manufacturing revenue of 11.3 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal manufacturing revenue of 11.0 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 1.6 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery with the beginnings of new growth are forecast to occur, with revenue up 4.2 percent from 2021. Total tribal manufacturing revenue in 2022 is forecast to exceed 2019 levels by 2.6 percent. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Wholesale Trade The wholesale trade sector is unique amongst industrial sectors in its direct connection to and reliance on the trends of two other sectors, manufacturing and retail trade. Because wholesale businesses are the definition of “middle men’” they do not so much generate their own sector trends as follow those of the producers they represent and the retailers they supply. When either or both of those sectors are off, wholesale trade will naturally be down with them. When either or both do well, wholesale trade moves in that direction as well. This is not to say that wholesalers have no control over their fates or that their decisions do not have impacts on the broader economy in their own right. However, no other sector, with the possible exception of agriculture, is as heavily dependent on the health of businesses outside of itself. With its position in the middle, wholesale trade has seen some of the same patterns as manufacturing, already discussed and as retail trade, which will be discussed next. That includes sudden shifts in demand in both directions, shortages on the one hand and excess supply to the point of destruction of unmovable product on the other. Significant winners and losers appear in this sector as in manufacturing and in the same product lines.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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