While tribal wholesalers may be negatively affected by international trade disruptions, they are generally less exposed than non-tribal wholesalers. Indeed, if a more protectionist pattern takes hold, tribal wholesalers may even find opportunities to become new sources of supply and new outlets for production for retailers and manufacturers no longer able to generate the same level of international profits. Internal characteristics notwithstanding, the wholesale trade sector will be most heavily affected by the manufacturing and retail trade sectors, showing patterns comparable to both, or perhaps mor accurately, averaged between them. Over the past 10 years, wholesale trade actually grew faster than manufacturing or retailing according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was due to a combination of international trade growth and increased reliance on outsourced supply chain activities rather than in-house purchasing by retailers. We expect that pattern to shift somewhat for the reasons already discussed. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in tribal wholesale trade revenue of 17.0 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal wholesale trade revenue of 9.9 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 8.8 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, substantial recovery is forecast to continue, with revenue up 7.0 percent from 2021. While this still leaves industry revenue 2.4 percent below estimated 2019 levels, it will effectively represent full recovery by the end of 2022. Revenue levels in 2023 are expected to approximate pre-pandemic levels and surpass them on a month-to-month comparison basis by the end of the year. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Retail Trade Under normal circumstances, a variety of factors drive retail trade, including consumer confidence, availability of credit, employment and earnings, supply chains, inflation, the stock market and numerous other factors. These are not normal circumstances. Although the other factors have not disappeared, the primary drivers of retail trade at present, as with the foodservice industry, are the restrictions put in place by government to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. As already mentioned, the dramatic decline in retail trade was not driven, at least initially, by a loss of demand, but rather by a loss of opportunity. Even if consumers wanted to purchase products, there was nowhere to go to get them and even if there was, the products may very well not be in stock. While online orders surged, the delivery chain and supply chain could not keep up in many cases and could certainly not compensate fully for the closing of brick and mortar stores.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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