Air travel, both tourist and business, is expected to remain down well beyond the end of the pandemic and any governmental restrictions. Continued health concerns, changes in the travel experience due to PPE use and related factors, reduced personal incomes, reduced international travel, the economic struggles of the industry itself and other lingering issues are expected to constrain recovery in air travel and continue to affect other forms of public transportation to lesser degrees even after the pandemic ends. Freight on the other hand, both its movement and storage, will continue to benefit from the increase in online shopping, the diversification of supply chains, increased par stock and inventory space needs, and general shifts in business patterns caused initially by the pandemic but remaining after its conclusion under new operating and consumption paradigms. The general economic downturn will dampen freight and warehouse needs to a degree, at least this year. However, we expect demand growth from the shift in business patterns to quickly compensate for the negative pressures in the broader economy, producing growth as early as next year. Furthermore, since freight and warehousing comprise the vast majority of output for the sector, growth in those segments will mean growth for the sector as a whole. This is even more true for tribal economies, which have little direct involvement in passenger transport. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in tribal transportation and warehousing revenue of 2.0 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal transportation and warehousing revenue of 9.9 percent from 2020 levels, pushing the sector past estimated 2019 levels by 7.7 percent. In 2022, growth is forecast to continue at a slower pace, with revenue up 2.0 percent from 2021, resulting in total revenue up 9.8 percent from estimated 2019 levels. This information is presented in the graph on the following page. Other Industry Sectors Other sectors include utilities, the majority of the service sector group other than tourist and leisure-related services, and government. Most industries in these categories are expected to see patterns similar to those already discussed, although generally not as severe. While some service businesses, particularly personal services such as beauty salons and fitness centers, have been hit every bit as severely as food service and retail and will continue to suffer in much the same way, the bulk of services are not as consumer driven and less susceptible to pandemic driven restrictions. Two service sectors worthy of note are education and health services.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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