Education has also been severely damaged by necessary mitigation efforts to control viral spread. On the private side, educational institutions at all levels are struggling with lost revenue, refunds for room and board charges and the possibility that disruptions will extend into the fall and winter. At the public level, declines in tax revenue will affect school budgets whenever they are allowed to reopen. Much like retail, online versions of educational programs were already beginning to replace brick and mortar versions, but to a much lesser degree and with less satisfactory results. The forced shift to all online models during the crisis will result in increase reliance on that option even after the pandemic passes. However, online learning is a long way from satisfying the end user to the same degree as in person models. Lower costs to the consumer will add to demand for online learning as well. At the same time, they will put even greater strain on operating margins and budgets for educational institutions of all types, requiring new operating and funding schemes. The effects on the healthcare sector are more subtle and more complicated. While overwhelmed ICUs and layoffs of non-critical care staff are far from subtle, the longer-term impacts on care models and healthcare economics will be complex. New distance and online models of care are proving to be both cost effective and satisfactory to the customer without, at least so far, showing any serious impact on quality of care, recovery and mortality. This is likely to change customer and provider behavior more thoroughly and permanently than in almost any other industry sector. However, the economics of that shift remain to be worked out. With the severity of the pandemic on congregate care facilities well documented, a greater emphasis on in home care services and supplies is inevitable, both for recovery and for senior living. This too will require significant improvements and adjustments in current operating models that will take time to work out. During the transitional phase, glitches, particularly those that cause injury or death or those that result in significant cost of care imbalances, may slow or even reverse the process temporarily. However, we expect a long-term transition to greater in home and less institutional care to be a permanent trend. Of course, the healthcare sector, as one of the most heavily affected by government regulations, will continue to have its economic prospects changed as much by government action as by the forces of supply and demand. Government as a sector is expected to undergo a pattern most similar to the construction industry, with lagged negative impacts following initial growth due to stimulus attempts. The need for stimuli will remain apparent through next year. However, the pressure on local and state finances will constrain their ability to respond and eventually even impact the federal government.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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