The real estate and financial sectors will both be impacted by the economic downturn as homeowners and renters find themselves unable to make their monthly payments. Commercial and multi-family property owners will have similar difficulties meeting their own mortgage obligations. This, in turn, will cause credit to tighten even if the Federal Reserve moves to bolster capital access. The congregate care subsector of the real estate market will face particular challenges going forward from lost consumer confidence and increased operating costs. This does not mean that individual projects and operators will be unable to make a profit. There are always opportunities in the real estate and financial sectors due to the intensely local nature of the business model. Based upon the assumptions about the course of the pandemic described previously and our analysis of economic factors, prior business cycle patterns in periods of crisis, and the likely impacts of changes in operations and customer behavior, we forecast a decline in tribal revenue from other industrial sectors of 7.1 percent for 2020. For 2021, we forecast an increase in tribal revenue from other sectors of 6.3 percent from 2020 levels as recovery begins, still leaving the industry 1.2 percent below estimated 2019 levels. In 2022, full recovery is forecast to occur, with revenue up 2.8 percent from 2021. Total tribal revenue from other sectors in 2022 is forecast to exceed 2019 levels by 1.6 percent. This information is presented in the graph on the following page.
SUMMARY
The severe disruptions from the global pandemic and from necessary efforts to mitigate its spread are already impacting the economies of Indian country and of the U.S. as a whole. Based upon assumptions about the length and severity of the pandemic and analyses of current and past economic conditions in crisis and recessionary circumstances, negative impacts across all sectors are expected for 2020 with varying but generally major degrees of severity. Negative impacts are forecast to continue in nearly all sectors in 2021 although recovery will begin in most cases. By the end of 2022 most sectors will be approaching full recovery or may have already reached it in some cases. However, certain sectors will not reach full recovery until 2023 or even later.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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