The initial phase will continue to be a period of experiment and adjustment, as government, industry associations, unions and individual operators attempt to find some means of increasing economic activity without triggering a return to exponential viral growth in their areas. While the weaknesses of poor coordination and inconsistent communication inherent in our decentralized capitalist system have been apparent during the early stage of the crisis, its strengths in terms of innovation, creativity and incentive are also on display and will become increasingly evident during this phase. To a certain extent, no system or approach can fully overcome the inevitable shifts in information, recommendations and operating processes and results that will characterize this phase as the virus itself, about which there is still much we do not know, continues to be the primary driver. For that reason, more severe restrictions will remain in place during this time and even be strengthened at times in some areas as outbreaks are renewed. Within this context, key recommendations and areas of focus include: Watching for promising new ideas and approaches taken by others and implementing them quickly Maintaining close communication with employees, customers and government, including both listening and informing, to minimize confusion and maximize the compliance with and benefits of any steps taken Monitoring actual versus expected results and not hesitating to change or revoke steps that do not produce desired results Publicizing the steps you take widely Planning in advance for retrenchment in the event of a viral surge Planning in advance for the next round of actions to take as conditions improve and restrictions are eased Careful evaluation of costs versus benefits to inform future revisions Avoidance of the language of failure or error and instead focusing on language of learning, refinement and evolution Transitional Phase (October 2020 to September 2021) The exact timing of the transitional phase will depend heavily on the timing of the anticipated secondary peak in COVID-19 cases, widely assumed to be coming in the fall but with the potential to happen earlier or later. As with the initial outbreak, that timing will vary by region. However, at some point during the period listed for most if not all locations, the transition will begin from more intensive restrictions to a resumption of general business activity in modified form. Although wider reopenings in some parts of the country are getting considerable press already, they do not really constitute the degree of loosening that will occur during the transition phase. The main difference will be a shift from regulations focused on crisis intervention to those focused on maintaining progress and restructuring the economy for improved long-term protection, not only from COVID-19, but from any future similar problem.
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