GENERAL
As we have noted, we are still early in the course of the pandemic and even earlier in the course of the economic crisis spawned by the disease itself and by efforts to contain it. Every statistical measure available on the disease, as well as on the economy, has flaws in its timeliness, accuracy and breadth of applicability. History is informative but not necessarily indicative. Any data or conclusion regarding the course of events should be appended with the words “so far.” While it is possible, as we also noted, to make useful forecasts about likely future outcomes even with limited data of questionable reliability and it is absolutely necessary to make the attempt to guide decision-making and planning, the potential for unexpected shifts and relevant new information must be recognized. In addition, national trends and averages will not hold true for every tribe in every location at precisely the same time. Therefore, it is useful to consider what factors and indicators should be monitored to determine if the course of the disease and the economic crisis are conforming to the forecasts in this report or are varying to a significant degree in your particular area.
COVID-19 AND CIVIC RESPONSE
The actual course of the pandemic and of civic responses to mitigate its effects have the greatest potential to vary either locally or nationally from the overall average assumptions we have described. Variation can take many forms. A second or third wave of surges in infections could not materialize. Death rates could fall significantly from the trends so far as treatment methods improve. A vaccine could come earlier than expected. Continued mitigation efforts to fight the pandemic could even reduce the severity of the annual influenza outbreak as people take far more care with disease spread than in a normal year. Any or all of these things could occur locally or nationally to greatly reduce the severity of the pandemic in your area or across the country. Of course, the opposite can also occur. Surges could come sooner and be more severe. Current plateaus and modest declines could stabilize without any further reductions, keeping infection rates and deaths higher throughout the course of the pandemic. With the unmistakable momentum toward reopening the economy, new outbreaks could reach exponential crisis proportions before governments, businesses and individuals respond, especially given election-year politics and frustration with the first round of mitigation efforts. If mitigation efforts are relaxed too far and not reintroduced in time, the annual influenza outbreak could combine with a COVID-19 surge to completely overwhelm the healthcare system. As we have mentioned, even without government-mandated business closures, the economy can be effectively shut down due to the severity of an outbreak surge alone. If that were to happen during the fall-winter school year and Christmas shopping season, the economic effects would be even greater than those observed “so far.”
∴ MONITORING FUTURE HEALTH
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