GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Aside from the course of the disease itself and the speed with which governments impose or remove restrictions, there are several factors that can be monitored in the national and international economy to watch for unexpected shifts or new information that could alter future results form the levels forecast in this report. First and foremost, stimulus efforts by the Federal Reserve and by the Congress can affect economic patterns for good or ill. The Federal Reserve has been clear to date that they plan to hold a strong bias for continued monetary stimulus for this year, next year and perhaps most or all of 2022 as well. Since they are more insulated from political pressures and under the control of a limited number of individuals, they are more likely to be able to maintain discipline in following their plan over time, unless circumstances in the general economy dictate a shift in response. Congress and the executive branch have neither of those advantages. In theory, that can make them more responsive to public needs. In reality, it has meant in recent years that political advantage can be placed ahead of good policy and lack of compromise can stall needed action. There is more bipartisan effort in regard to the current crisis than has been seen in years, a good but fragile indicator. With an election coming while the pandemic is still very much in place, the possibility exists for that bipartisan approach to be jettisoned before or after the election depending upon polling numbers and election results. Particularly volatile times will be from July through October leading up to the vote, and then from mid-November through early January during the lame-duck period before the newly elected balance of power, whatever that may be, takes office. Even though both parties need to be seen taking action to help the average voter, the views of their own voters on what action is appropriate vary considerably and may slow or shrink the size of any further stimulus efforts. Aside from direct government action, the decisions of leaders in various industry sectors can easily sway the direction of the economy to either struggle more severely or recover more quickly than forecast in this report. While local businesses in any particular area are likely to display some level of uniformity in their level of caution or lack thereof, national and multi-national corporate leaders make decisions with broad reach but still carry the prejudices and tendencies for more or less caution of the local areas where they have their headquarters. Thus, major corporations headquartered in relatively laissez-faire areas in their response to the pandemic are likely to react in a similar manner for all of their operations, even those in places where the effects of the pandemic have been more severe or where local leadership, employees and customers are more cautious. The same is true in reverse for companies headquartered in areas where the default mode is more cautious. However, impersonal they may seem and act, major corporations are still run by people, people that have the same variations in temperament and outlook that anyone else may have. While their education, training and experience may allow them to look beyond their own tendencies to some degree, they do not remove them entirely.
∴ MONITORING FUTURE HEALTH
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