There are likely to be contradictions in the direction that each of these indicators suggest that the economy is moving for better or worse. There will certainly be variation in the experiences of different parts of the country and of different industry sectors. The key in following the suggested indicators is to look for particularly strong and sustained shifts from the expected direction. Many of the shifts that will be observed will be shorter-term and less substantial and may even fluctuate back and forth. This “noise” can obscure the real pattern or cause an overreaction when staying the course remains warranted. The same “so far” attitude that needs to be employed with current information should be applied toward these various indicators in coming months.
TRIBAL ECONOMIES
Federal government actions will also play an outsized role in the health of tribal economies and the speed with which they recover. Additional stimulus for tribes is every bit as important as stimulus for other parts of the national economy, if not more so. A key indicator will be the amount of directed or accessible stimulus funds in any new package targeted toward Indian country. Beyond one-off stimulus efforts, the degree to which regular funding for Indian health, Indian education, and other BIA, Interior, Agriculture and Energy department funding for tribal initiatives is sustained, increased or reduced will either support and enhance or hinder economic recovery in Indian country. There is real reason for concern for the maintenance of regular funding channels and levels, given anticipated declines in tax revenue and massive increases in deficit levels driven by the crisis. Funding levels in the annual federal budget in the 2021 and 2022 fiscal year will be key battle grounds and indicators for tribal economies. This is why coordinated messaging amongst various tribal associations and individual tribes is so important. In particular, the application to Indian country of the same stimulus first, deficit second approach being applied elsewhere needs to be hammered home continuously during the next two years. Aside from federal budgetary matters, the anticipated need for state governments to bolster their tax revenue will put pressure on compact renewals and even compacts in the middle of their terms, as well as on efforts to expand commercial and online gaming. While the integrity of compacts and tribal sovereignty needs to be protected, efforts need to extend beyond that to parity and partnership in any new initiatives being considered by individual states. At least initially, a proactive approach in states where Indian gaming is well established would seem warranted to explore ways tribes and the state can partner in new ways to their mutual benefit. If, however, states remain or become antagonistic, retaining tribal unity is by far the most important matter.
∴ MONITORING FUTURE HEALTH
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