This is not meant as a criticism of any particular reporting mechanism, measurement or forecast. While legitimate weaknesses and outright errors exist, the primary problem is in the nature of the crisis itself and of our length of experience with it. It is simply too soon and the conditions remain too vulnerable to the caprices of the virus and to the decisions by everyone from leaders at the highest level to individual tribal members. It is literally not possible at this point to have a clear and consistent picture of either the health or the economic impacts of the pandemic and the mitigation efforts to contain it. Unfortunately, that does not change the need for leaders to make decisions right now and to plan for the future, however unclear. It also does not change the need for experts in the relevant fields to apply their skills, experience and best judgement to advise those leaders and the general populace to the best of their abilities. This problem is not new and is not without methods for approaching solutions. Forecasting and decision making with imperfect information, even in volatile periods, has been a subject of intense study for a long time and great advances have been made at the theoretical and practical levels that make possible useful frameworks for analysis, prediction, planning and direct action. Despite the uncertainty, there can be confidence that experienced professionals and capable leaders using appropriate methods can reach conclusions and take effective steps that will ultimately come closer to the conclusions and steps that would have arisen from perfect and consistent data. In other words, conclusions and steps that will leave their economies and people in the best possible position when the crisis recedes. KlasRobinson Q.E.D.* specializes in analyzing the financial feasibility and economic impact of Indian gaming and economic development on tribal lands. Over more than thirty years, the principals of KlasRobinson Q.E.D. have worked with more than 250 tribes throughout the United States and Canada. This white paper has been created in an effort to apply that experience and perspective to the current crisis in all of its maddening complexity and volatility to equip tribal leaders and anyone who works to improve the economic health and well-being of Native America with a framework for short- term decision making and long-term planning. The analysis is organized into two main sections as suggested by its title. The first section is a prognosis for tribal economies that discusses the current conditions and forecasts the most likely outcomes going forward. The second section is a set of prescriptions for tribal leaders and the managers of their primary economic developments to assist in the economic recovery process. A final adjunct lists possible positive and negative variables that should be monitored to identify the potential for outcomes that vary from the forecasts made and adjust the strategies employed, along with some suggestions for the best means to track those key variables. Throughout the paper, we will attempt to provide sufficient discussion of the reasoning behind the forecasts and recommendations to allow the reader to make adjustments in the future as new information becomes available.
* KlasRobinson Q.E.D. has considerable experience in analyzing tribal economic development. For a profile of the company, please see our website at www.klasrobinsonqed.com
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