GENERAL
This section describes, in brief, the findings and conclusions derived from our analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation efforts on tribal economies. This overview includes our assumptions for the course of the pandemic and our forecasts for tribal economic damage and recovery. However, the estimates presented, along with the information in this section as a whole, are meant as a summary of, not a substitute for, the body of the report, which contains additional information and detail critical to a full understanding of the bases for the estimates made and the context within which they were formed.
PROGNOSIS
The severe disruptions from the global pandemic and from necessary efforts to mitigate its spread are already impacting the economies of Indian country and of the U.S. as a whole. Based upon assumptions about the length and severity of the pandemic and analyses of current and past economic conditions in crisis and recessionary circumstances, negative impacts across all sectors are expected for 2020 with varying but generally major degrees of severity. Negative impacts are forecast to continue in nearly all sectors in 2021 although recovery will begin in most cases. By the end of 2022 most sectors will be approaching full recovery or may have already reached it in some cases. However, certain sectors will not reach full recovery until 2023 or even later. We are not public health or behavioral health experts. We are dependent upon the available information and analyses of such experts to formulate our assumptions for the course of the pandemic. However, making such assumptions cannot be avoided as they will have significant impacts on the forecasts of economic effects and appropriate responses for tribal leaders. With that understanding, we assume a continuation of significant caseloads and deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 through the Spring of 2021, with an approximate total number of infections of 5.6 million in the U.S. with approximately 224,000 deaths, plus or minus a margin of error. Following that time, we assume that COVID-19 will cease to be a major determining factor in the economy, although the effects of its ravages and of the responses needed to control it will extend far beyond that date, as will be discussed. However, the ongoing caseload and death rate of the virus beyond that time is no longer assumed to be an imminent driver of the economy. The table on the following page present a listing of our forecasts for various sectors of tribal economies across the country. The experience of individual tribes will vary depending upon local circumstances and actions that their leaders and the leaders in their surrounding counties and states take. The discussion of the reasoning behind the forecasts in the body of this report should be consulted for any forecast of particular interest to any reader to ensure a thorough understanding of the significance and reliability of the figures presented in the table.
∴ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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