GENERAL
In order to develop an accurate prognosis for the economic consequences of COVID-19 and of the efforts to mitigate its spread, it is first necessary to understand the most likely prognosis for the two exogenous variables that are driving the current crisis, COVID-19 itself and the civic response to its spread. Only with a discussion of these two factors can we proceed to general economic conditions and likely future business patterns in the nation as a whole and in individual sectors as they pertain to tribal economies.
COVID-19 AND CIVIC RESPONSE
As of May 27, 2020, the United States accounted for nearly 30 percent of all COVID-19 cases worldwide, more than four times the next closest country, and over 28 percent of all deaths worldwide, more than two and one-half times as many as the next closest country, according to data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The U.S. ranks 119 th out of 154 countries listed in terms of the “death rate,” recorded deaths to recorded cases, meaning only 35 countries have a higher death rate. The U.S. ranks 139 th out of 154 countries in deaths per capita, meaning only 15 countries have had more deaths per capita. Many of the countries included in the Johns Hopkins figures have had very few cases. While no country can compare to the number of U.S. cases, it is reasonable to narrow the comparative analysis to countries with significant caseloads. There are 36 countries that had experienced at least 20,000 cases as of May 27 th . Of those 36 countries, the U.S. ranks 22 nd in terms of its death rate and 28 th in terms of deaths per capita. These figures are presented in graphs on the following page The trends in terms of cases and deaths in the U.S. have shown a very gradual decline in terms of rolling multi-day averages, even as individual days spike. Visually, the graphic pattern resembles a hand saw, with a gradual but serrated downslope. This pattern has developed during a period of maximum mitigating efforts, including massive business closures and significant restrictions on personal activities and interactions. The vast majority of states have been under some form of limited shelter- in-place order. Even those very few that did not issue such decrees, have still enforced business closures and made other significant recommendations that limit public gatherings. Every casino in the United States has been shuttered for some period of time. All major sports, concerts, events and other public gatherings have been cancelled or postponed. Virtually the entire food service industry has been either completely closed or restricted to takeout and delivery. Air travel and hotel occupancies have plummeted to 10 percent or less of normal volumes. Retail has also been restricted, as have all sectors of the economy to some degree. While certain areas have been maintained as essential, there is no question that personal travel and interaction outside the home has dropped to the lowest levels ever seen on a nationwide basis.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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